The end is near - 2018 in review

It is traditional for many public commentators to suggest that the UK has become a diminished power and that its position, influence and ability to shape events are in decline. There is a widespread, but somehow unquantified public sense that ‘we don’t have armed forces anymore’ and that we have become irrelevant as a nation.

2018 has arguably challenged all these assumptions about the UK’s place in the world when it comes to defence and security issues. As the year draws to a close it is worth reflecting on the truly global role played by the UK and the impact that this has, and the potential challenges that lie ahead in 2019.  

To Humphrey, 2018 saw the UK continue to demonstrate its status and reach as one of the worlds leading military and politically influential powers. At home the Armed Forces showed their capabilities through the provision of assistance to the Civil Power. Aside from the usual complex range of support, such as Counter Terrorism, Fishery Protection and EOD, they helped in other challenging tasks ranging from playing a critical part in the Novichok poisonings in Salisbury through to helping stop drones at Gatwick airport.

Its all about logistics- Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

Operations

Thematically the year embraced three core operational trends for the MOD:

a.     Resurgent Russia

b.     Global Reach

c.      Regenerating alliances

For the UK the return of Russia as a clear and present threat is not something that should be welcomed. The UK’s quarrel is not with the Russian people, a proud and cultured civilisation with a long history, but with the totalitarian and hugely corrupt regime at the heart of Russian society. The efforts by Putin to turn Russia into a highly aggressive nation that threatens its neighbours, while acting in contempt of international norms are a cause for regret.

The MOD has responded by increasing its focus on the Russian threat, from permanently deploying British personnel across Central and South Eastern Europe to increasing the attention paid to ASW and the Arctic.  2019 is likely to see further such deployments and an increased focus on turning NATO back into a credible warfighting organisation.

Globally the armed forces deployed to every continent on the planet. This rather bland statement masks a vast range of missions from discrete ship visits in South America through to exercises involving thousands of personnel like Saif Sarrea 3 in Oman and strike missions in the Middle East. The short list below sums up just a few of the missions, exercises and visits done this year, often at the same time. This is not exhaustive, merely a snapshot of some of what happened.

Location	Activity
Asia Pacific	Deployment of Royal Navy flagship HMS ALBION to participate in UN operations against DPRK.
Asia Pacific	Army exercises in Japan
Asia Pacific	Deployments by HMS ARGYLL, HMS SUTHERLAND and HMS MONTROSE across the region throughout the year.
FPDA States	Renewed exercises with FPDA partners
Nepal	Ongoing recruitment of British Army Gurkhas, and support to veteran care of the permanent British Army deployment in country.
Afghanistan	Continued deployment of approximately 1000 UK personnel in country
India	Visit and exercises by Royal Navy
Gulf	Establishment of first RN shore base outside UK since 1945. Permanent basing of 6 warships (Type 23, LSD(A), 4 x MCMV) in region Multiple drugs busts by HMS DRAGON.
Oman	Deployment of 5000+ personnel, multiple aircraft and ships to conduct EX SAIF SAREEA 3
Iraq	Ongoing mentoring and training of Iraqi forces
Mali	Deployment to Mali with Chinooks to support French forces
South Sudan	Ongoing deployment with hospitals and engineers to support UN efforts
Africa	Provision of training in anti-poaching techniques to protect wildlife.
Syria	Air operations and wider support. Strikes conducted on Syrian targets.
Cyprus	Ongoing support to OP SHADER and wider middle eastern operations – some 3500 personnel deployed there.
Ukraine	Continued support to the Ukrainian Government against persistent Russian aggression. Multiple deployments on the ground
Baltic States	Provision of permanently based forces to deter Russian aggression as part of NATO commitments.
West Indies	Deployment of Royal Navy and Royal Marine forces, supported by others to provide HADR in event of hurricane disasters.
Falkland Islands	Continued deployment of personnel to support sovereignty of the islands.
South America	Wide range of visits by Royal Navy vessels and exercises.
Antarctica	HMS PROTECTOR repeatedly visited. One British Army Officer currently walking across the continent unsupported(!)

The list above is by no means complete, nor does it reflect many of the jobs quietly done – such as the deterrence mission carried out by the Royal Navy reaching its 50^th year of continuous patrols – a feat of logistical, engineering and operational excellence that deserves far more credit and attention.

You only need to take a cursory glance at the map to realise that the UK has a military reach unsurpassed by any nation on earth other than the United States. While it is traditional in some quarters to bemoan the perceived lack of capability, or to assume that because the Mod hasn’t invested in some particularly specific capability, that we are all doomed, the reality is that the UK remains exceptionally well placed. 2019 is likely to see more of the same, a globally deployed military that will focus on working with its friends and partners to deepen relationships across the globe.

Finally the year was a time when long held alliances have been re-tested and reinforced to help thicken defence relationships. At an operational level the deployment of HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH to the US helped deepen the links with the US Navy and remined them that the UK is serious about getting back into the carrier game. This, coupled with the ongoing joint operational presence in places like Syria and the Middle East helps ensure the strength of this enduring relationship at working and officials level for many years to come.

More widely the UK has invested heavily in its commitment to NATO, which is now occupying a much higher level of importance to defence planners. For many years a quiet backwater where posts could be gapped without risk, today filling NATO appointments, and supporting deployments has become a major priority for the UK. The resurgence of NATO as a credible organisation is to be welcomed, but it will take some years for the funding enhancements promised by nations to appear. The UK’s challenge is to continue to ensure NATO remains relevant and engaged, particularly when some nations are toying with the idea of a more limited ‘EU Army’, and that commitments to increased funding are adhered to. NATO works because of the power that comes from shared values, and a shared commitment to Article 5 – ensuring that this is not threatened is likely to be a key policy goal.

Globally the UK has spent considerable time regenerating its relationships in the Asia Pacific region. While much of this activity has been focused on diplomatic or ministerial engagement, the growing presence in region by UK personnel and units, coupled with participation in exercises is helping to acclimatise nations to working with the UK again. The return of the military in strength to the Asia Pacific region to help support a renewed British focus on the area is to be warmly welcomed.

In terms of policy challenges for 2019,  the UK will need to consider how best to handle China and Russia. The growth of both nations influence in non-traditional areas, such as the Gulf and Africa, poses a real challenge for the UK and West. There is a sense that Africa in particular is becoming a neo-colonial battleground for influence, with a new scramble for Africa underway as nations vie for access, influence and resources. Time permitting this is a theme that Humphrey will explore in more detail next year.

Financial Challenges

Closer to home the key challenges for the MOD in early 2019 will be understanding what constraints or opportunities the forthcoming Comprehensive Spending Review poses. While the MDP announced the policy framework around how the UK interpreted global security issues and trends, it was very light on structures and financial planning outcomes – the key reason for commissioning it in the first place.

The CSR is the final part of the puzzle as it will determine the resources that the MOD has available to fix its budgetary challenges (which remain considerable), and its level of activity and aspiration for the next five years.

Given the wider pressure on public finances, and the significant internal financial challenges (the NAO is particularly concerned about the mismatch between funding and affordability for the equipment programme), then it is possible that further defence cuts may occur in the event of a less than optimal CSR outcome.

There is likely to be a glut of leaks over the next few months as vested interests try to protect their position, along with potentially a variety of measures adopted quietly and without fanfare to help try to balance the books.  Getting the MOD on an even financial keel is vitally important to ensure the long-term delivery of operations.

While many reviews of this year will have focused on capability, and in particular the introduction to service of new equipment, Humphrey would rather focus on the most vital aspect of all – people. The success enjoyed by the UK globally is in no small part down the quality of its people – military and civilian alike.

A great deal has been asked of them this year, difficult deployments in dangerous locations and long periods of time spent away from home for many. Getting the balance right between home, work and deployments is essential to keep the force going – recruitment is important, but retention of skilled personnel is just as important.

There are challenges ahead on this front – the continued challenge of what to do about military accommodation, delivery of a pay package that keeps both military and civil service staff feeling adequately compensated, and ensuring proper career development and training exists is critically important. Minimising the early and unplanned loss of key people, such as engineers, pilots and other pinch point skills, while trying to remain financially solvent and operationally committed will be extremely difficult at times. This is not a new problem though, and is arguably one that the Military and Civil Service have been grappling with since WW2 and the end of National Service – how to recruit and retain a highly skilled trained workforce in the right quantities when the private sector can and will poach your talent?

Social Media

The final observation of 2018 is that it was the year that the military really ‘got’ Social Media. The explosion of twitter accounts in particular is noteworthy – as is the proactive engagement by very senior officers in a constructive manner on it. The approach by all three Service to social media is to be warmly welcomed, as is the manner that they engage.

There has been a growth in good quality online debate, particularly sites like the Wavell Room and The Army Leader housing exceptionally good articles on the state of UK defence. This, coupled with a growing wider ‘defence twitterati’ community has led to a wide ranging series of debates online and physical events to develop a fantastic resource.

2019 is likely to see social media lead the way in developing ‘Defence Professional Military Education’ events in the UK, organised at grass roots levels to bring thinkers and commentators together to take this to the next level. This has potential to develop into something impressive, and in many ways perhaps epitomises the approach of the British Armed Forces - bringing together an eclectic collection of amateurs, civilians, professionals and the odd military officer into one location to come up with something world beating as a result.  

For Humphrey 2018 has seen the blog continue at speed (this is the 75^th article of the year, the average length of which is about 2000-3000 words). It will continue for as long as personal circumstances permit and there is material or items of interest worth writing about. It remains an utterly amateur effort, done in a spare room in my own time without any formal training.

Thank you to all the readers who enjoy it, who are kind enough to comment or send feedback, or who engage via twitter. The biggest challenge is in using social media is working out how to embrace it effectively and raise the blogs reach further. Trying to work out how to use this effectively and embrace social media without spamming is going to be one of the new year’s resolutions! Another may be to see what can be done to improve the blog, or its layout and setup (Humphrey not being a remotely technical person!).

Many thanks to all of the readers here, and have a wonderful Christmas and Happy New Year, wherever you may be.

Sir Humphrey: "I wonder if I might crave your momentary indulgence in order to discharge a by no means disagreeable obligation which has, over the years, become more or less established practice in government service as we approach the terminal period of the year — calendar, of course, not financial — in fact, not to put too fine a point on it, Week Fifty-One — and submit to you, with all appropriate deference, for your consideration at a convenient juncture, a sincere and sanguine expectation — indeed confidence — indeed one might go so far as to say hope — that the aforementioned period may be, at the end of the day, when all relevant factors have been taken into consideration, susceptible to being deemed to be such as to merit a final verdict of having been by no means unsatisfactory in its overall outcome and, in the final analysis, to give grounds for being judged, on mature reflection, to have been conducive to generating a degree of gratification which will be seen in retrospect to have been significantly higher than the general average

Jim Hacker: Are you trying to say "Happy Christmas," Humphrey?

Sir Humphrey: Yes, Minister.

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