A bad dose of the Crabs - the F35 'leak' and the Royal Navy.

There are some things in life that need to be taken for granted, even if we really don’t like them very much. Death, taxes and leaking by disaffected members of the Armed Forces trying to protect their narrow service biases being just three of them.

The news last week (HERE) that Royal Navy personnel had spoken to the media about their concerns that the RAF was pushing for the procurement of a different version of the F35 that would not be capable of operating from the RN’s new carriers. Apparently, this may leave the RN with just 35 F35’s from the initial batch of 48 that could operate at sea. This is apparently a bad thing.

The armed forces are a very complex organisation, consisting of hundreds of different units, structures and parts. They represent many different tribal areas that are often closed private worlds, and where gossip, scandal, drama and intrigue are a form of currency. There is even a set of language to cover these stores – anyone who has worked with the Royal Navy for any time will know things like ‘seriously shippers, this is a safeguard three clip gen dit – I got it from my Bezzy Oppo on the MASSIVE who used to serve alongside Nobby Clarke on the Ark  who heard it as a two deck buzz from his oppos third cousin twice removed by marriage, a noq retired 3 badge AB who’s the landlord of the QUEENS HEAD’ or words to that effect.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

When you are running a multi-billion pound procurement programme covering hundreds of projects, it is inevitable that difficult decisions need to be made. You need to model out costings, consider changing threat situations, different strategic context and also the basic requirements of the armed forces. Projects can take decades to bring to fruition, so it is wise to test, and retest assumptions to make sure they remain correct, and if they’ve changed, work out what to do about it.

In the case of the F35, this has been a project in one form or another now for well over 20 years. A great deal has changed in that time, so its perhaps inevitable that the people running the show will want to be certain that their plans stand up to scrutiny. For all we know, it could be the case that the RAF have looked at whether bringing a squadron of F35A model in now as part of the final tranche of 48 will enable them to generate a new capability without compromising the regeneration of carrier aviation.

The sort of data that needs to be considered includes all manner of issues like the carrier deployment plot, the plans for delivering carrier strike operationally, the refit plans for the QEC, the deployment plans for the Lightning force, available budgets and wider production issues and so on. All of this needs to be considered before a final decision is made. Frankly it would be utterly irresponsible not to do so.

Humphrey has no idea what is going on, but is sounds entirely possible that a couple of the leakers heard a rumour or saw part of a wider chain of emails looking at one option. They’re almost certainly not privy to the full picture, and its doubtful that they fully understand or know whats going on. Despite this, they’ve chosen to abuse the trust placed in them and run to the press and make out that the sky is falling in.

This sort of behaviour does more harm than good. In the real world the RN and RAF have been working jointly now for the best part of two decades to bring in the F35 and CVF capability at the same time in order to deliver the best possible outcome for HMG. Anyone foolish enough to think that the RAF are running a cunning masterplan to neuter these ships and carrier airpower, that are utterly central to the wider Governments strategic intentions for the next five decades is utterly out of touch with reality.

The reality is that F35 is coming, it is doing great things now and it has just gone through an incredibly successful trials programme in the US showing what the CVF platform can do. Instead of cheering on this magnificent work, highlighting what a great job both services have done, a pair of utter idiots have chosen to try and undo all of this in the most spectacular way possible.

It is intensely frustrating to see people thinking that because they are seeing one tiny part of a really large and complex picture that only a few people ever see, they are somehow obliged to ignore their obligations and start talking.

These sort of interventions never solve problems. The Chief of the Air Staff is not going to walk into work tomorrow to engage in a duel with the First Sea Lord, now alerted to these dastardly plots and who insists that honour must be served. Tempting as it is to imagine a sword fight between the Service Chiefs down the quiet carpet of the 5^th floor between their respective offices, culminating in the greatest naval victory since Trafalgar, it is unlikely to happen.

Instead what has happened is a bit of news coverage has been achieved which sets back the RN/RAF joint cause. Its enabled Sputnik news (that well-known source of objective neutral reporting from the heart of Russia) to push an anti-RN/RAF line and ended up making the UK military look weak and divided.

What was the point of all this? Cynics would suggest that when leaks happen they are more likely to confirm the fate of an issue. If a Minister is going to take political flak, then why not get it over and done with at the time, then take the option and not have to worry about it when implemented. It is very hard to see any options that have been leaked prompting a change of direction, except for the proposals to ask whether the RN REALLY needed two manpower intensive LPD’s at a time when it has a glut of amphibious capability and is tying up escorts alongside due to a lack of trained manpower. That campaign may have kept the LPDs, but at what price?

Let us instead focus on what we know right now. All that is currently decided is that the UK has committed to an initial batch of 48 F35 Lightnings, that will on current plans be ordered in a STOVL variant. There remain long term plans to buy up to about 130 aircraft, but this is unlikely to be fully met.

We know a Defence Review is underway, and we know a Comprehensive Spending Review is also occurring soon. No definitive decisions have been taken yet, and these reviews are realistically months away from reporting their findings.  Until that point, any speculation is utterly pointless.

This tiresome game of ‘the bad RAF did it and ran away’ has to stop. We are operating in an incredibly difficult and uncertain world. Right now what is needed is focus, joint work and looking to the incredibly exciting future that the F35 at sea offers the UK.  The modern RN and its people have spent years working jointly with the RAF – they don’t need to deal with this sort of turgid nonsense. Speak to most personnel now and they regard each other with fondness, respect and the odd bit of banter. They would probably be perplexed that some outsiders are choosing to fight battles that do not need to be fought on their behalf.

We can also recall that the RN is institutionally paranoid about the RAF and has spent decades treating it as a greater threat to its existence than the Soviet Navy and the VD infection rate  from Joannas nightclub combined. This nonsensical paranoia includes the tired old myth that the RAF ‘moved’ Australia 400 miles in the 1960s to kill CVA01 (something that no historian has ever been able to find any evidence of occurring).

Then there are the angry rants by people who have often never served in the RN and while they insist they don’t dislike the RAF they would disown their children on the spot if they announced their intention to marry one of them. There is always a place for single service banter. What there is not a place for is the near psychotic fear and loathing that some (usually retired) RN and their supporters have for the RAF and the manner that they choose to express this. This has to change, behaviours have to change and things need to be done differently. Bluntly put:

 “England Expects Every (W0)Man to Do Their Duty and Stop Bloody Leaking”.

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