Happy & Glorious

Sunday 6 February marks 70 years to the day since the beginning of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II reign. Now the longest reigning monarch in British history, this is a feat unlikely to ever be repeated. The Queen began her reign in the early Cold War, in a period when the United Kingdom still possessed significant colonial possessions, and was at war in Korea, but not yet a nuclear power.

Seventy years later, the world has changed out of all recognition to that time, other economies have grown, populations exploded in size, and humanity has begun its journey in space. In real terms the UK is both smaller and less militarily significant than it was in the 1950s, but somehow it remains a globally influential power. But can this position remain given wider global events?

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

In many ways 2022 is not dissimilar to 1952. The West is somewhat disunited but aligned in broad thinking, while Russia and China remain hostile and belligerent to outsiders and those they deem threats. The United States is more military powerful than it was in the early 1950s, when the US military struggled in the early days of the Korean War, but it remains stretched, and the once dominant US economic supremacy, a position achieved as a result of rapid industrialisation in WW2 is now one of economic competition.

As the UK looks ahead, it finds itself facing a world that is increasingly challenging, complex and unpredictable, and torn on the different ways it can react to this. What feels increasingly clear is that we are entering a period of complexity that will require careful handling to steer through.

In 1953 the Coronation saw march pasts, fly pasts and an enormous fleet review, making clear that Britain relied heavily on military might to police its will around the world. National Service provided a large pool of manpower, albeit at the cost of leading to shortages of trained technical people in the civilian workforce.

Today these military forces no longer exist, and the web of colonial era dockyards, overseas air forces and Army commands has long been disbanded. Yet the security threats facing the UK remain undiminished, and if anything, are more challenging than ever before. How then, does the UK remain credible in this world?

Arguably we are entering an era where what matters is not sheer military might alone, but one where the UK’s ability to influence and impact on outcomes relies more on diplomacy, soft power and aid, than it does possession of a large military.

In a world where dozens more nations exist in the UN, all of whom have casting votes, and many of whom have held emotional links to the UK in the form of colonial history, the ability to persuade them to support your values and causes is crucial. Automatic support on matters can no longer be taken for granted, and links to ‘the old country’ are not a reason for a new generation of leaders without emotional or blood ties to the UK to support it.

As we draw to the closing years of this reign, we cannot assume that just because Britain once influenced these nations, we can take it for granted that we will do so in perpetuity. This year marks 75 years since India gained independence – it is perhaps a measure of how long the Queen has lived, that for the formative years of her life she grew up fully expecting that one day she would follow in her fathers’ footsteps and become ‘Empress of India’.

The passage of time means we cannot assume links still exist unless they are maintained. This calls for investment in diplomacy, quiet sustained presence around the world pushing the case for Britain and making the case for our values and beliefs.

Those beliefs are clear – the UK stands for democratic rule, the rules based international system and in working in partnership with others to solve problems and make the world a fundamentally better place to be.

This is something which requires use of international organisations for common good – for example helping shape NATO and the UN and supporting wider groups in a way that makes them effective.

It also requires use of aid and targeted support to assist those nations who require our help, in a manner which benefits those that need it, not enriches the pockets of leaders who do not. The case for aid remains compelling and overwhelming as a way of providing assistance and help and building long term support to other nations in a manner which in turn helps align their thinking to our own.

This is not easy to do in a world where China can offer money, lots of money and easy no questions asked investment that results in ‘quick win’ infrastructure projects that promise a great deal. Why listen to the UK, whose aid seems targeted, tightly controlled and all to often low key and with tedious strings attached on human rights and democratic values, when China will provide what you want without the tedious monologues on how you should change?

The answer is that the UK can make a case that our aid, support and friendship does not come with complex financial strings attached. As many nations who have accepted Chinese largesse are finding out, the infrastructure ‘quick wins’ result in ownership of critical national infrastructure being passed out of national control and into the hands of Beijing.

Criticism of Beijing can result in economic punishment, while the much-promised investment rarely leads to local jobs, but reverse colonialism as Chinese workers arrive to build the projects. Several African nations have now begun publishing Chinese language newspapers for this new diaspora, who seem subjected to the increasingly totalitarian control exerted by Beijing. Chinese friendship seems more akin to a loan shark offering easy money and expecting their money back in whatever way suits their own interests.

This is where Britain can add value, the FCDO provides a way to offer alternative visions of engagement, without taking control and without putting a nation into credit hock to the British government. By supporting, not controlling, British aid and diplomacy can be used to shape how other nations engage and work with us in a way that will prove effective in the medium to long term.

The interesting question to ask is how long can the UK expect to maintain a leading role on the world stage? Predictions of British strategic irrelevance are made regularly, and yet this small island nation seems to constantly defeat the naysayers and remain relevant in a world where by rights, it should not be.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

We are in the final stages of having empire in peoples living memory, and the point where those who think fondly of Britain for what it did to them will soon pass on. To remain relevant in the future the UK needs to capitalise on what matters to the next generation and play to its global strengths.

These include a truly global presence and interest – there is not a continent on earth that does not enjoy British diplomatic and military presence, a feat few other countries can claim. This sense of presence and interest drives engagement, which is coupled with the fact that English is in many ways ‘a global language’.

Do not underestimate the soft power of the English language, the ease of London as a means of travel connections, or the City of London as a place where people come to for business and global clearing. The UK’s geographic and cultural position astride GMT may sound fanciful but makes a huge difference in terms of the ease of doing business with like minded people.

This soft power is underpinned by a genuine fascination with the UK, its pomp and circumstance and the ability to engage in ancient traditions which if invented today would seem absurd, yet somehow work. The power and prize of an offer of a State Visit or audience with the Royal Family, global media stars in their own right remain incredibly potent, and provides a soft power influence factor that other countries are deeply jealous of.

The continued British ability to build and operate armed forces who can deploy globally and work through a network of allies and partners makes Britain a desirable ally of choice to many. Partnership with Britain opens doors to other networks and helps build a stronger multilateral path for all.

This does though raise an interesting question about the role that British military power plays in the coming decades. While debate often focuses on the ‘fantasy ORBAT’ element of ranking numbers and theoretical capabilities in an attempt to determine ‘power’, it is more nuanced than this.

The British offer has to focus on both short- and long-term credibility, and how it is best employed. Boosting diplomatic relationships when coupled with ‘soft’ short term opportunities like ship visits or training team deployments can be extremely powerful. At the same time the ability to be able to step up and command and control complex operations, such as HMS PRINCE OF WALES taking on NATO command duties afloat helps permit the UK a reasonable stake to leadership and influence.

Policy makers will need to balance off these drivers, which require different platforms and capabilities, trying to strike a balance between low key, affordable and credible soft capability, and the means to remain able to operate at the high end. Too much of the former may win friends but deny access and credibility at the other end of the spectrum, but investing here means fewer assets, and they will be more fixed in where they can usefully be deployed. Striking this balance is a complex challenge for policy makers of the future.

That said, Britain can offer both soft power, and couple this with a willingness to use hard power to support her friends and allies, and show herself to be prepared to stand up for core values. British support to the Ukraine recently shows that UK influence counts for something.

But this cannot be taken for granted – a choice needs to be made as to whether the UK’s position in the world today is the result of a legacy of Empire that is rapidly diminishing, and in turn drives the UK towards a more insular approach, or whether it is more meaningful.

Policy makers need to decide how to push the case for a global Britain in a world where access, influence and power cannot be taken for granted. It takes time, money and sustained commitment, and once lost, cannot easily be regained.

While we give thanks today for 70 years of leadership, we must also think now about the decisions facing the UK for the next 70 years.  How does it shape itself in a post-Elizabethan world, where it will find itself trying to compete against larger economies, bigger armed forces, and potent cyber operators who will enjoy peer status, if not exceed the UK’s ability to match them, gun for gun and byte for byte.

Being able to chart a course of relevance, influence and secure a world where other nations align with our values and interests will be difficult, but not impossible. The future is likely to be one involving less military and kinetic hard power, and far more soft power and alliances. 

The nature and means by which the UK exercises power and plays kingmaker have changed, but the goal of playing, and winning, the Game of Thrones remains, even if the means of playing constantly change.

Whatever else the future holds though, the one certainty is perhaps that the leadership and direction of the realm remains in safe hands and wise leadership.

Long may she reign over us.