Positive Waves - Why The Defence Paper Is Good News For The Royal Navy

A week after the publication of the MOD defence paper, it is perhaps possible to begin to take stock and reflect on the paper, and its contents. As more information has seeped out, it is also easier to take a more reflective view on the positives within the paper, and how these can tell an exciting story for the years to come.

The Royal Navy has benefitted particularly well from this paper, and it is worth considering in a bit more detail why the review is so positive for the RN, and the impact that this will have.

This broadly breaks down into three main areas, the operation of the fleet, the state of the fleet, and the future of the fleet.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

In terms of the state of the current fleet, it seems that the RN has successfully pushed forward a proposal that will see the UK operate essentially a three tier Navy. At its heart will be the Carrier Strike Group, which will be the centrepiece of UK defence and provide a valuable force that can operate on a national or coalition basis.

The second step forward is the Littoral Strike Group, which will represent a global capability to provide a discrete raiding force and intervention role around the world. There will be at least two LSGs in existence, operating in the Med/Baltic and in the wider East of Suez role.

The final step is that there will be a globally deployed and permanently based navy that has ships operating out of a range of shore bases around the world. There is a commitment to keeping the RIVER class Batch 2s busy, as these ships, which will likely be replaced by Type 31 in due course, will be global workhorses based all over the world.

This represents a fairly fundamental shift from the vision of previous years, where the RN deployed singleton ships on operations and recovered them. It is likely that the days of the individual deployer have now gone forever, replaced instead by group deployments.

Over the next 10 years the RN has successfully pushed a vision that will, on current plans, see it permanently operating ships which are based in the Falklands, Gibraltar, the West Indies, the Gulf and Singapore. This is a global level of presence and reach unmatched by practically any other navy beyond the US and France.

The likely vision of the Royal Navy by the late 2020s is one that has a busy operational plan, and which sees ships operating in the North Atlantic and Arctic to conduct ASW and other operations. It is present in the Med, supporting stability operations, and it is conducting maritime security and task group operations in the Gulf and Indo-Pacific region, while also carrying out sovereignty patrols and disaster relief work  in the Caribbean and South Atlantic.

This is a really exciting vision because it demonstrates a level of breadth and ambition that few navies have. Beyond the US, France and China, no other navy will have the same level of deployed commitments or interests.

The next positive point to take is that there is a deeper commitment to the material state of the fleet and fixing gaps. For example the plans to increase warstock levels of Sea Viper missiles and the commitment to new anti-shop missiles. There is also a commitment to fully crewing ships by the end of 2022 – this may sound minor, but if gapping can be fixed, it significantly increases efficiency of ships and their ability to operate.

There is also a commitment to material improvements elsewhere, such as enhancements to the naval facilities in BIOT and Singapore, helping fund the longer term global presence that will be central to the Royal Navy plans for the future.

The ‘bill’ for these short term changes doesn’t seem particularly high, although it does carry some short term risks. It looks likely that two Type 23s will pay off within the next couple of years, in order to use the savings accrued to help fund other refit work and free up crew for billet filling.

The loss of ships is always sad, but the reality is that the Royal Navy has been at 17 escorts for several years due to crew shortages. A temporary step back which provides full crewing for the available platforms is a welcome decision if it means the force can go to sea as planned. This is at best a realism measure.

Its also been confirmed that the RFA will formally decommission both of its older FORT class stores ships, which have been in service for many decades. These vessels, although in reserve for some years, are a crucial platform both for the enabling of Carrier Strike, but also supporting afloat ammunition supplies for commando forces.

That they will be disposed of suggests that there has been an acceptance of risk that if FORT VICTORIA has an issue ahead of the long delayed FSS entering service, then Carrier Strike Group will effectively be out of commission.

Similarly, there appears to have been a significant scaling back of aspiration for afloat commando forces, as there will be no ability to support them with stores and munitions in the same way as before. This suggests that the Littoral Strike Groups are intended as very ‘light touch’ raiding forces, and that there is a significant move away from large scale amphibious operations now.

However, on balance the document appears to sell a very positive vision of what the future looks like for the Royal Navy in terms of both operational commitments and plans for its activity. The last positive piece of the review is the longer-term commitment to both ship building plans and the wider embracing of emerging technology in the coming years.

At its heart is a vision that sees no less than eight different classes of vessel planned or under construction in the next 10 years – Type 26, 31, 32, DREADNOUGHT, ASTUTE, Multirole Ocean Surveillance Ship, FSS, and a new platform to replace the LPD/LSD force. There is also a commitment to the Type 83 destroyer, and plans for the eventual replacement of the ASTUTE class too.

In terms of ambition, this has to rank as one of the most significant construction plans for any major navy in the world. No less than 18 surface warships, seven submarines and multiple other platforms are planned, ordered, or under construction right now. There is a vision for construction that stretches well into the 2040s, and offers a steady flow of work to shipyards all around the United Kingdom, with shipbuilding in Scotland in particular facing a particularly healthy future, for as long as it remains part of the UK.

This is in addition to the wider changes that will occur as the RN embraces emerging technology and brings uncrewed systems into widespread use. For example, the replacement of the Mine Warfare force with shore based units and autonomous drones, or the deployment on the carrier force of drones will help bring new technology to bear.

Some of the more interesting developments include the proposed acquisition of the MROS, which represents a tangible response to the threat posed to undersea cables. These assets are some of the most vital critical national infrastructure out there, so being able to monitor them, and identify where there may have been tampering or sabotage by other nations is going to be crucial.

Similarly, the move to evolve the amphibious force into a raiding force is particularly interesting. The RN of the future will, like many major amphibious players, probably move away from the idea of having a bulk force move to slowly land on a beach. Amphibious landings of the style last seen in the Falklands are realistically gone forever.

Instead, the move to build ships able to house small groups of raiding forces which can influence, train and mentor regional partners, and if needs be support operations or act as lily pads for basing is exciting. It helps reflect the ‘grey zone’ and the goal of the UK in trying to use the military to help enhance security in often confusing circumstances, short of outright war – for example tackling terrorism or piracy.

The build programme out to the future looks exciting because it really does show the positive future ahead. A globally deployed Royal Navy that is operating daily around the world with permanently based ships, strike groups and the ability to deploy some of the most advanced warships on the planet around the world at a time and place of its choosing.

There is a lot to like about this vision – its exciting, it continues the promise first floated in the 2015 SDSR to expand the RN in the 2030s, now out to a target of 24 destroyers and frigates, and it sees the RN remain a major player around the world. This is a bold exciting plan that confirms a very bright future ahead.

If there are quibbles in the plan, then it perhaps remains the unanswered questions that remain unclear. For example, what plans are there for the future of the Batch 1 RIVER class, and how will OPVs be deployed in future? What is the plan to replace RFA ARGUS, both in terms of the aviation training and medical facilities onboard?

More widely, is the RFA sustainable in the medium term from a headcount perspective, and how great a risk is being run on the force? At present the RN is reliant on a single store ship, which is nearly 30 years old. If the FSS is delayed, then the risk to Carrier Strike is enormous – getting FSS underway after many years of delay is crucial.

There are also wider structural questions on issues like what happens to the survey vessels like SCOTT and the E class, all of which are beginning to approach the end of their lives – will they be replaced? There is also an issue on how the RN structurally can sustain command opportunities at sea with the loss over the next 10 years of the Mine Warfare force, and potentially the RIVER class too. There are no less than 16 platforms across three classes that seem set to pay off, deleting a lot of opportunities for more junior officers to command at sea.

Finally what happens if the Type 26 and 31 are delayed and there is increased fragility in the Type 23 force. The next few years are exciting, but there is also a lot that can go wrong with bringing multiple new ship classes into service while running on a now very elderly platform considerably past its design life span.

Despite this good news, it is frustrating though that it remains extremely difficult to find accurate numbers and precise information about what the impact of the review is. A week after it has been issued, there are still no factsheets or basic information about the planned numerical size and strength of the armed forces.

This lack of commitment to open government is unprecedented and is disrespectful to the taxpayer, who is the ultimate paymaster for the MOD. The fact that a major department of state is not prepared to tell the public details about how large the armed forces will be, despite the fact that is has previously released this information for many decades is genuinely concerning.

It is unclear what is driving this opposition to providing this basic information – is it a fear of bad news, or a fear of being held to account if numbers seem smaller than previously expected. There is a positive case to make for change, and it is utterly wrong that the MOD is not prepared to be open and honest with the public on force levels and why they are changing.

Preventing the public from seeing the truth about the size of the armed forces that they pay for is not how a modern department of state in a 21^st century democracy should work. We are not Russia or China and the public have a right to know how large the military will be, and how many ships, aircraft and vehicles will be in service.

But with that aside, what has been gleaned from various websites, briefings and releases is that there is, for the Royal Navy at least, a positive plan for the next 10 years. While the concept of ‘winners and losers’ is somewhat nebulous in the context of a defence review, it is clear that there is a lot of good news on the cards.

But on balance, and not withstanding the serious concerns about the lack of open and honest communication about the actual numbers that will make up the force from the MOD, this does appear to be a genuinely long-term good news story for the Royal Navy.

The vision of a force in 10 years’ time with new shipping, lots of new technology and with opportunities for global operations as part of a joint force is great. We will soon see carrier strike groups at sea with RN, RAF and Army aviation embarked, and littoral strike groups using the Royal Marines to best effect, as well as ships on station globally monitoring UK interests around the world.

The paper is a great vision setter, the challenge now is to ensure that the funding and plans remain in place to deliver it.