Thin Pinstriped Line

  The Secretary of State for Defence, Ben Wallace MP, has raised some eyebrows with his comment that the British Army is currently only funded to “stay at home and do a bit of tootling around”. These comments, coming as the UK heads into a new Defence Review to determine the size and shape of the armed forces and defence budget provide a timely insight into the challenges facing the MOD right now. It is worth reminding ourselves why a Defence Review is underway as the Integrated Review, written 1 SofS Defence, 3 Prime Ministers, and 4 Chancellors ago (e.g. last year) is now looking already out of date. The significant changes to the global security environment driven by the invasion of Ukraine, the reinvigoration of NATO against a dangerous Russian threat, the challenges raised by ‘grey zone’ operations as well as the increasingly fraught relationship between the USA and China means that assumptions need to be revisited. The IR was an attempt to balance off British commitments ...

It has been a very good week for the Royal Navy, which has seen the confirmation of plans to order three Future Support Ships and five Type 26 frigates have been placed on contract for construction. This news cements a very substantial future work package for the next 10 years at least, and provides both certainty and long term stability for the UK shipbuilding industry. The Type 26 order is good news for several reasons. Firstly it provides confirmation that the RN will see out the full construction of this class of ship, with 8 hulls entering service between the late 2020s and mid 2030s. These will be in addition to large orders from both the Royal Australian and Canadian Navy for the design, which will become one of the most numerous and capable Western ASW frigates of the next decade. The decision to order all 8 hulls provides certainty for BAE Systems in Scotland, who can now progress with further investment in the Clyde and have guaranteed business for many years to come. With ...

  France has announced its new National Security Strategy, which will lay the foundation for French defence planning over the period 2024-30. This document sets out policy direction and guidance on where France sees its primary strategic interests and how it proposes to focus resources. There is, at time of writing, no English language version available (merde!) but there is plenty of coverage on it available. The UK and France are both nations that occupy very similar positions in the world – they are ‘more than a middling power’, enjoying a global network of interests and alliances, credible armed forces, effective soft power and diplomatic reach and a willingness to use force when necessary. For all the banter and disagreements, both nations have far more in common than differences, and a good strategic partners. It makes it timely for the UK to understand French policy direction, for it could highlight some of the challenges facing planners in Whitehall and the policy concern...

  It seems that the MOD budget settlement is heading for turbulent waters. Hints in Parliament suggest that the MOD requires a further £8bn a year just to factor out the cost of inflation and currency fluctuations. At a time when the UK needs to make significant financial savings, is this credible, and is a longer term growth to 3% of GDP a pipedream? Why though after a summer of pronouncements on Defence budget growth is this problem occurring, and what should we make of it? There are essentially three distinct challenges facing the MOD that it needs to resolve. The first is to work out how much money it has available in the short term and what it wants to spend this on. The budget settlements agreed in 2021 as part of the Comprehensive Spending Review are now effectively being reopened as part of wider efforts by the Treasury to balance the national budget. The combination of less money to go around, higher than anticipated inflation and a significant negative decline in the va...