Someday My Prince Will Come (to Sea).

 

The Telegraph has published an article about HMS PRINCE OF WALES (POW) suggesting that that she has spent barely 90 days at sea in two years. This is apparently because of ‘leaks’ and is apparently a bad thing. Is this really the case though, or is there more to this than meets the eye? In a word, no, there isn’t an issue – its actually pretty much normal business to be honest.

The article is concerned at the length of time that the ship has spent in Portsmouth, worrying that she seems to have spent very little time at sea. But, this is entirely normal so early in her operational life.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

All Royal Navy ships are run according to a carefully planned programme of events. This is scheduled to ensure that the Royal Navy knows what military tasks it has to do in order to meet Government objectives, what ships will be needed to fill those tasks, and how they can be made ready in such a way as to meet this.

For example, if you look at the escort fleet, the Royal Navy may be tasked to provide an escort ship on an enduring basis to support NATO operations from 1 June next year. This means it must identify a destroyer or frigate that isn’t currently scheduled to be in refit/repair or otherwise deployed, then work backwards to find out how to get the identified ship ready to deploy as planned.

This means potentially sending the ship to FOST sooner than planned, or participating in exercises to build up required skills, or possibly having a mini refit to add specific equipment on for the deployment. All of this takes time, and has to be co-ordinated alongside every other commitment, to ensure that all the tasks are met as planned. This is akin in some ways to playing 3D chess, as ships programmes are moved about, plans change and ships get ready for their deployments.

At the start of a ships life though, things tend to be a little different. As ships enter service they tend to have quite a lot of time built into their programme to ensure they can do trials, and that there is time for any defects to be rectified, changes made or updates fitted as required. It is quite common for there to be a not inconsiderable gap between a ship formally commissioning, and her first operational deployment.

In the case of the PRINCE OF WALES, she has conducted her initial sea trials which have ensured that the ship works as required, prior to returning to Portsmouth last year. She then entered a planned refit to carry out a variety of updates to the ship, adding on capabilities and equipment that had emerged as a need since the design was finalised.

When ships are in build, it is common for new changes to occur after the design was finalised, based on either lessons from other ships in service, or new technology that didn’t exist / couldn’t be afforded at the time and that is now able to be added to the ship once she is actually in service. It is entirely normal for new ships to undergo this period after trials to help get them up to speed and properly kitted out for the tasks at hand.

In this case, POW has been alongside having equipment fitted to her, any internal changes made or minor defects fixed, and generally speaking been undergoing the process of turning her from a newly commissioned vessel into an operational warship. For example, she has had Phalanx CIWS fitted as part of this work.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

The next step in the process will be for the ship to head out for Operational Sea Training (OST) that will help the crew get the ship worked up for exercises and operations. This seems, based on public statements, to have been scheduled for late last year, but two things happened.

Firstly, the ship had a minor flood onboard that caused damage and has necessitated repairs. Floods are not good news, and no one is pretending otherwise. But they are also something that does happen onboard ships, for a huge variety of reasons, and this can have an impact on plans.

The repair work has necessitated further time alongside, to help identify why this happened, what needed to be done to fix it, and make sure whether it was a one off, or if there was a possible deeper issue that needed amending to prevent it happening again.

The second challenge has been COVID-19. While the MOD hasn’t given huge details about the plan for the POW in late 2020 and early 2021, it was entirely likely that the ships programme was, like many other ships, disrupted by COVID.

Its not just the ship itself, but the wider challenge of ensuring that the Royal Navy could put her safely to sea, able to undergo training at the right time and with the right resources, and then move on with her programme as necessary.

It could have been entirely possible that in the wider picture, there was not a good opportunity to put the ships company through FOST in late 2020 in a way that could deliver the right training, in the right time and in a way that wouldn’t be disrupted by COVID.

Is it better to get a ship sent for training, only to have it disrupted by COVID and then stop / start and have less effect than hoped, or pause the plan for a few months and wait for the right time to go down to Plymouth at some point in early 2021?

There was always going to be a bit of a gap here – the combination of delays, minor repairs, leave periods, ensuring that COVID didn’t become an issue and so on and quickly quite a lot of time can pass when there is no scope or need for the ship to be at sea.

The decision on how to proceed with the ships programme will not have been taken lightly. Contrary to popular belief, the RN is not in the business of sending ships to sea to sail up and down the channel for the sheer hell of it. It is usually far better to keep a ship that needs to be worked up and made operationally ready alongside till the right time, rather than go out to sea and do racetracks around the Solent, just because they can.

Until the ship is safely worked up, and operational then there is little value to be gained in putting her to sea except for this training or initial trials. Why spend quite a lot of public money just to send a ship to sea for no reason except to see what she could see see see?  

 

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

The bigger point here is that the POW was always going to be a bit behind the QUEEN ELIZABETH (QE) in deploying and getting out on her first deployment. That was never going to happen until 2021 anyway, and there is still work to be done on getting the Carrier Strike Group concept up and running.

Right now, the RN is focused on getting the 2021 Carrier Strike Group deployment ready and working up the POW to be ready to go later on. The plan for the carrier force is to have one ready to deploy as required, which means one will always be at a slightly higher level of readiness than the other.

At the moment the QE is the lead carrier, and the one where most public attention is likely to be paid this year as she heads out to the Far East. But POW will in due course take over as the lead carrier and have her own worked up Carrier Strike Group to operate with.

But here is the thing – POW is but one part of the CSG concept – to be effective she needs planes, helicopters, escort ships and support ships to be truly ready for action. These ships and aircraft exist, but they’re also not at the stage of the readiness cycle to step up and take on the job of being her escort.

Currently the RN will probably know internally what units need to be made ready to ensure that in 2022/2023 the PRINCE OF WALES CSG can stand up and be ready to deploy. These units will be planned to undergo refits, training, and exercises to get this process underway, but they’re not ready for this job right now – and there is no reason for them to be. Again, this is entirely normal – what matters is that these ships are ready in due course to assume their duties.

It is easy to be distracted by statistics that purport to show ‘bad news’ without any context or analysis placed on this figure. It is entirely understandable that some may feel there is a problem here, but there really isn’t. Please don’t feel that there is anything to worry about, because this sort of period in harbour early in a ships life is entirely normal.

Even if last year had not seen COVID occur, or the minor flood onboard, then its hard to see how we’d be in a different situation now to be honest. The only possible difference is that the ship may have completed FOST by now but would still probably be alongside for the next few months waiting for the programme to see her deploy. In other words, by the time she heads out to sea soon, she’ll have done pretty much the same thing as she was planned to do anyway and been alongside for a similar amount of time.  

What matters here is the bigger picture. The POW is getting ready for operations and can expect to be worked extremely hard throughout her life. Right now, she is at the start of her naval career, and it was always going to be the case that she would not be at sea very much at the moment. Over the next 18 months to 2 years, it is likely she will spend a lot more time at sea, prior to taking part in whatever CSG deployment the RN judges appropriate in due course.

This is a very carefully balanced and considered plan. The RN has been working on this for over 20 years and knows precisely what needs to be done, across multiple ships, air stations, naval bases and support sites to ensure that in the very near future, HMS PRINCE OF WALES proceeds to sea, as planned, as a fully worked up and operational aircraft carrier. It is not a problem if she has not spent much time at sea now – that is pretty much what was going to happen anyway and is nothing to worry about.

We are on the cusp of doing something that, currently, only one other navy on the planet can do (the US Navy, potentially soon to be joined by the Chinese Navy). That is to have a permanently available, and globally deployable carrier strike group on call, able to support our national interests whenever, and wherever, the Government wishes.

This is the culmination of nearly 25 years of effort by multiple Governments and is a huge prize. It reinforces that the Royal Navy will remain one of the most capable, experienced, and potent naval powers in the world, and one able to fight and win. It is a magnificent prize, and one that should not be lost sight of amidst undue worry over meaningless statistics.