2020 in Review - 'Anno optimus oblitus'

 

As we stagger punch-drunk and exhausted towards the end of a year that has, by any reasonable measure, been an emotional rollercoaster, it is a good time as any to reflect on what 2020 has meant for the UK armed forces.

It has been an extremely odd year, but in many ways it has also been reassuringly normal. The year will end as it started for so many core parts of Defence. There will be an SSBN on patrol somewhere in the ocean, fighter jets ready to launch on Quick Reaction Alert, and high readiness forces able to respond to any emergencies. All of this supported by a wide range of military, civil service and contractors on duty as needed.

Throughout the year Defence has maintained a global presence, operating on all the continents, and supporting a wide variety of work. Looking back to the start of the year and the Royal Navy was on hand to quickly respond to the heightened security situation in the Gulf, representing the timeless value of sea power in being able to escalate and de-escalate as required in difficult situations.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

The British Army and RAF have continued to play a major role in demonstrating the UK’s commitment to NATO by deploying forces in the Baltic. The ongoing presence in Estonia is a key sign of the UK’s determination to secure Baltic States independence and security from unwanted aggression by external neighbours.

Operations more widely have continued, with OP SHADER continuing throughout the year, whilst Mali is ramping up as UK troops arrive to take on an enhanced presence in the country. The RFA ARGUS has been the centrepiece of a significant West Indies presence throughout much of the year, ensuring that in the event of a natural disaster, aid would quickly be forthcoming.

Even with the significant constraints imposed by COVID on much of the planned programme for the year, the MOD has still managed to meet the challenges placed on it. There has been a lot of work done behind the scenes to keep core tasks met – for example ensuring that ships can deploy as required, and rotations of troops and units occur.

There is a lot that the MOD can be extremely proud of – keeping the armed forces able to continue to deliver, even during a period of unparalleled disruption to peacetime routine is one of them.

The year as a whole has been one of reasonable success for Defence, although some challenges do lie ahead. The delay of the Integrated Review and cross Whitehall spending review was seen as a portent of bad news, that would herald a difficult budgetary outcome for MOD.

Instead the MOD has been rewarded with probably the most substantial budget increase of any Department. With funding now guaranteed out for several years to come, there is real scope to ensure that many previously threatened programmes can now be properly funded, and delivered as planned.

The budget increase also provides the space for significant changes to occur to structures, providing headroom for budget and staff changes to pay off older less relevant equipment and try new ways of doing operations and embracing technology.

The best way to look at where the MOD is going over the next 2-5 years is to think of it as undergoing the preparation work required to be match fit for the next 10-15 years – trying to get ahead of the game and embrace the new technology that could really change how military operations are carried out.

The budget increase does not exempt the MOD from having to make tough calls, and one of the most difficult challenges ahead will be determining what is, or is not, considered to be a ‘sunset capability’.

Already it is clear that equipment like the RAF Sentinel and Sentry fleets are up for disposal, with MOD advertising the airframes for sale by stripping for parts. Further cuts or changes to areas like Army armoured forces, or RN mine warfare and older frigates seems entirely possible.

The difficulty will be in trying to deflect emotionally charged responses and leaks that lead to pressure to change course. There is little to be gained in retaining elderly and less relevant equipment in service, even if it is has had a glorious past – but making this case will be a hard sell to an audience that will interpret change as ‘cuts’.

Paradoxically this places Defence in a bit of a problem – it finishes the year with a level of long term security for its equipment plans that it has not had for years. But, it also faces significant short term pain to get the books to balance, hence news leaked about training exercise cuts or pausing Reservist training.

Trying to explain that there is a bright future ahead, but in the short term it needs to pause or do things differently will be a difficult message to put across. The danger is that consistent messaging about extra money becomes difficult to reconcile with short term cuts to activity and outputs, that suggest this is not the case.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

The next big move for the MOD will be the announcement of the outcome of the Integrated Review, and its impact on defence tasks, objectives and the force structures needed to deliver this.

Already we know that the Integrated Operating Concept places a much higher emphasis on joint operations and working with partners across Government, and will radically change how the UK seeks to operate.

Both the Secretary of State for Defence and CDS have given speeches setting out their views on what the IOC means for the UK. In short it will, if fully implemented and supported, potentially pose a real game changer for how the Armed Forces work and operate. These speeches will be more fully explored in a future Pinstripedline article.

Stepping away from the doctrine and Whitehall developments, and it is clear that Defence has had a good year. It has managed to keep itself operating, often under challenging conditions, and proven itself as a source of valued crisis support to Government.

The response to COVID shows that Defence has an invaluable part to play in supporting operations to assist the Civil Power. That said, there is always a balance to be struck between seeing Defence as the Governments version of a 999 call, and accepting the trade offs that this may cause.

For example sustained support to MACA will, over time, disrupt a variety of other operations and deployments, or eat into the readiness, stores and supplies of units that are held to deploy at short notice. This is entirely appropriate in many cases, but understanding that MACA is not a ‘no risk’ outcome is important. There is always a cost in some form to supporting requests like this.

Broadly there seems too to be an optimism about the period ahead. The period 2010-2020 was always going to be about shaping the armed forces for the early 2020s and the world that planners expected to face – hence the concept of Future Force 2020.

As we await the outcome of the Integrated Review, its clear that the 2020s, will be about getting the armed forces to the 2030s. There is huge change ahead, with new technology and equipment in the pipeline. To successfully deliver this will require drawing together the best efforts of the armed forces, government, and industry together to ensure that the right outcome is reached.

It is a genuinely exciting time ahead – with good budget outcomes and new equipment entering service, plus a huge amount of aspiration to bring cutting edge technology and equipment forward, there are good and funded times ahead.

There are without doubt challenges too – we face a world where the need for preparing for the possibility of state on state conflict remains high. Our putative opponents who need deterring are capable, less bound by following accepted norms of international behaviour and able to effectively innovate and change quickly to adapt to new ways of operating.

The need to be able to operate effectively across multiple domains, in different parts of the world, at the same time to constrain one potential opponent will place a huge challenge on the machinery of government to deliver as required. But this is a challenge that can, and must, be met.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

As the year ends, it is worth reflecting that Sunday 27 December will mark the 9^th anniversary of this blogs first article. Now some 450 articles and 2.9 million page hits later, the blog seems to have acquired a level of interest far beyond that originally envisaged.

It remains a simple thing – a blog containing purely personal thoughts and views, written at home, and without agenda or patron. There is no classified material present, and nor does it draw on secret knowledge – every article is written to the principle of ‘can I google this fact’.

It does not set out to ‘spin’ any particular line or view, nor is it beholden to adhere to always seeing the positive in everything. It tries to be balanced and objective, but where possible to put a positive approach to the state of UK defence. It will continue for as long as there is material to comment on and there is value to add to the debate.

As 2020 ends, it is easy to find little comfort or happiness. We live in an age of difficulty and challenge, and even when this COVID nightmare ends, we face great economic hardships ahead. More widely COVID has torn apart much of the checks, balances and debate that many deem necessary. This must not continue one second longer than is absolutely necessary to enable the nation to return to normalcy as quickly as possible.

But, we must though even in this most dark of times, where hope and joy seem in scarce supply give to thanks to the men and women of the British Armed Forces, Civil Servants and contractors who have given so much this year, and who will be away from home this Christmas to keep us safe.

Whatever the threats to our way of life at home, we know that we are well protected from external threats. We owe much to those prepared to stand to, when so many stand back.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.