Something Wrong With Our Ship Today? The Prince of Wales Story Assessed.

 

The news has leaked out that HMS PRINCE OF WALES may not sail until some point in Spring 2021, some months later than planned. This is reportedly because of issues to do with repairs to the flood onboard the ship earlier this year. The indications are that this may delay planned exercises with partners out in the US.

How big an issue is this, and is this something we should worry about? In short, its not ideal, but it could be worse, and even if the flood hadn’t happened, things may have been delayed anyway.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

For much of this year the POW has been undergoing various planned dockyard work in Portsmouth following her sea trials. The goal was to bring the ship up to standard with any changes or updates that had been lined up since the design was finalised. As can be imagined when the ships were built and the design frozen, things have evolved, so like all major ships, when there has been a delay of a few years between design freeze and entry to service, there are various changes and improvements that could be needed.

This process was going to take several months anyway, and the intention (based on publicly available information) was that at some point this autumn, the ship would have sailed for working up for FOST training, prior to deploying next year.

A major challenge has been the flood onboard in one of the engine rooms, which will almost certainly have caused damage that needs to be repaired. Reports suggest that more inspection is needed to check the various piping on board to make sure it is acceptable.

There is always going to be a challenge in checking the pipework on a platform as vast as an aircraft carrier, particularly if significant checks are required. Getting into the workspaces, finding the pipes and monitoring them takes time, and the ships has, quite literally, thousands of kilometres of pipework installed.

So, how bad is the problem? Well it looks like the ships departure has been delayed until next year, although the precise date isn’t yet known. At this stage she will try to regain the programme and continue with her generation and forming into a worked up carrier.

The delay is frustrating, but it is important to look at the wider picture too here. COVID-19 has had a challenging impact on all manner of operations, and has changed how the armed forces work and operate.

It is entirely possible that even if the leak had not happened, then the ability to put the ship into FOST as planned may have been difficult or impossible. The Royal Navy takes its COVID secure measures extremely seriously, but there is a challenge in trying to bring dozens of additional people on and off the ship constantly, for different exercises and evolutions, and in carrying out a traditional FOST serial.

The FOST staff do not live onboard, and will transfer to and from the ship, meaning that this poses a bit of a challenge in trying to ensure COVID secure training. Other RN ships have had COVID outbreaks onboard and it is challenging to try and contain them.

The wider challenge too is that of programming – ships programmes are very complex and rely on lots of interactions with different organisations at different times. In the case of this, its entirely possible that delaying FOST would have caused all manner of ripples in the system that could have disrupted training and operations for other ships – which would in turn have had a direct operational impact.

Sometimes it makes sense to delay things in the short term because the cost of slipping right by three or four weeks can cause disruptions across the Fleet as a result. This may not be ideal for the ship, but the bigger picture outcome is a far better outcome overall.

So the key thing to remember is that even if all was well, the chances are that the ship would still be alongside and delayed because FOST itself has had to adapt to a different world this year.

The Royal Navy has made great efforts to keep operations going throughout the COVID period, but it is a challenging act and one that takes a lot of work to do. In the case of the POW, working a ship up from scratch into a finely tuned fighting vessel takes a lot of time and effort, and this could be simply too much for the system right now.

The reality is that 2020 has been an extremely odd year, challenging on many fronts and it isn’t always smooth sailing. What is an interesting debate though is how this is perceived and communicated.

The reaction on social media to the story seemed to be either ‘shrug of shoulder and jog on’ or ‘concern that the UK has a useless aircraft carrier and that this is a scandal’. There are two very different perspectives in play.

The military group tend to be fairly relaxed about this sort of incident – that’s not to say it isn’t a bad thing for a flood to happen – of course not. But, to the military incidents like fires and floods are very much an occupational way of life – something you are trained to deal with and overcome.

Similarly, changes to programmes and delays / modifications and new plans are just part of life. Anyone who has served will be familiar with the longcast being as accurate as the rumours of the imminent arrival of a busload of nurses at the NAAFI disco. Things happen, world events occur and and plans can, and do, change – often at short notice. So to a military person much of this is seen as very much ‘well this is just life in a blue suit’ and is not seen as anything of great importance to worry about.

By contrast there are a lot of outside observers who are rightly worried. They see an extremely expensive asset sitting alongside, seemingly broken and not working, and they have legitimate concerns about what is going on and when it will be fixed.

To this group, understanding what the ship is doing and why she isn’t going to sea, and when the problem will be fixed is key. There is also an entirely understandable worry that leaks seem to happen onboard, and whether the design is faulty or not fit for purpose.

As a taxpayer, it is right to ask questions as to why a multi-billion-pound warship has spent the best part of a year sitting alongside in Portsmouth dockyard and when will this be fixed?

The answer lies somewhere in the middle of all of this, and its hard to work out how to deliver it. On the one hand, there is a danger that we can get a bit too focused on what are arguably tactical issues – ships historically take time to generate, their programmes can be impacted by things like breakdowns, fires or repairs (for example HMS ILLUSTRIOUS in the 1986 gearbox fire while setting off on a global deployment).

The internet does not help- anyone anywhere in the world can see what the ship is doing right now by looking at a webcam and trying to see what is going on with her. We have an ability to focus on the macro picture in a way denied to forbears when ships may well have had similar problems.

At the same time, there is also perhaps an understandable desire to want to protect an element of mystery around the finer details of the programme itself. Exposing it may highlight issues that the MOD doesn’t want discussed from an operational security perspective. No navy on the planet provides a running commentary on the day to day generation of their ships and the problems they may, or may not, be having.

Briefing openly and publicly about what is going on with the POW is a foreign intelligence officers dream. It allows compilation of material that can be used by hostile states to inform their understanding of how the UK uses its carrier force – which may sound low level, but it useful information to an intelligence collector. Never underestimate the power of Open Source as a way to create up to date intelligence.

But equally there is a strong argument for more open communication about what is going on – why is the ship alongside for so long and what is the rough plan for her? While giving a day by day account wouldn’t be helpful – particularly as it makes the MOD a hostage to fortune and external events that could disrupt it, there is a strong argument that more information may help improve public understanding.

Perhaps setting out in broad terms the plan for the POW, explaining what steps lie ahead for her and then trying to explain what has disrupted events this year in a manner that not only explains, but accepts that issues like COVID can be a challenge, would be helpful? Such a move would help understanding, but not compromise operational activity.

However it turns out though, there is clearly a really difficult line to be trod between saying ‘all is well’ and ‘all is not well’ – how the line is struck is less clear. Striking a balance on this tightrope, and keeping the public informed, but not overwhelmed with detail or outraged with salacious scandal is the key here – hopefully it can be done.

So to sum up, Humphrey is not particularly worried by this news. Ships programmes can and do change, and even if the leak hadn’t happened, it is still entirely possible that the programme would have slipped anyway. Is this a national scandal – no, it is not. Is it something that the Royal Navy is taking seriously, in order to ensure the ship works – yes it is.

Is the Royal Navy the only navy in the world with challenges with its ships? Absolutely not – every carrier navy will experience problems, only some are more open about it than others. But if you look at the experiences of the USS FORD, the FS CHARLES DE GAULLE and the RFS ADMIRAL KUZNETZOV, you’ll see a litany of problems that have needed to be overcome either entering service or after refits.

The trick is to remember that some nations hush up when things don’t go to plan and we never hear a word of it. That doesn’t mean it isn’t happening, it means that their press are unable to report it. Personally it’s a good thing that we live in a country where the press can report challenges in defence, because it means that we have a free press. That is worth defending – even if it does cause uncomfortable reads at times for some.