Friends with Benefits? The strength of the UK/US relationship...
There are many tired clichés and easy to write stories about
UK defence issues that regularly feature in the press – such as this recent one
from the
NY Times. One of the most popular to trot out to fill column inches is some
kind of article that suggests that the UK military no longer matters to the US
and that France / Australia / Asgard are the new best friend of the US, usually
followed by a comment about how the Special Relationship is no longer special.
These articles have been written for decades, with author
after author proudly proclaiming the demise of the UK / US relationship due to UK
defence cuts or other reasons. Frankly, they’re utterly predictable and usually
built on emotion and not logic. Is the UK a declining power though and has
France supplanted it, or are these articles merely wishful thinking?
In practical terms the UK and US enjoy a particularly close
security relationship that covers some of the most sensitive areas of a nation
states activity and secrets. This is not a relationship built on nostalgia, but
one built on the UK offering practical value to its ally. Broadly speaking the
UK value to the US comes about through the following areas:
- Global diplomatic influence and reach
- Residual real estate in useful location
- Extremely valuable niche capabilities
- Self-sustaining military with global reach
The UK retains a global
diplomatic network to represent its interests, coupled with membership of a
broad range of institutions including the UN and NATO. To the US this matters
because not only can the US work alongside the UK at a local diplomatic level (e.g.
jointly demarching a nations government can be a powerful diplomatic lever),
but also the UK has access to some nations that the US has no representation in
(e.g. Iran and DPRK).
The UK is able to make effective use of this network to
lobby and influence other powers, and can work closely with US and other allied
diplomats to co-ordinate diplomatic efforts. One of the key reasons why the UK
matters to the US is the FCO diplomats who consistently deliver effective
solutions to difficult foreign policy problems. This relationship makes it
possible for the UK to effectively co-ordinate and co-operate with the US and
help further joint policy goals.
People often lose sight of the fact that the ideal resolution
to a diplomatic crisis does not involve going to war. If the UK and US have to
conduct a military operation somewhere it means that diplomatic measures have
failed. The constant engagement between FCO and State is testament to the ability
of these departments to work together to provide a diplomatic solution.
The UK matters too because it has a truly global outlook on
policy issues, meaning that unlike regional allies, it can be counted on by the
US to take a view on something and lobby for it. This gives the US a reliable likeminded
partner who is prepared to work with
them to further their goals. It also means the US can draw on UK access and
influence through soft power (e.g. nations which have a closer relationship or
are more amenable to UK lobbying than US) to help secure their support in
international organisations or issues.
The challenge for US policy makers is that not every nation
sees eye to eye with US policy goals, and cannot always be counted on to
support them. Consequently the UK matters to the US because it shares many US foreign
and security policy goals and is highly unlikely to ever actively lobby against
them – a trait not every US partner shares.
It is not just the diplomatic efforts that matter though.
The UK retains a variety of real estate in interesting parts of the world that
it is prepared to let the US use for operational reasons. The value to the US
of having a reliable partner own the estate their base is on cannot be
overstated. For example Diego Garcia is home to a number of critical US
military assets, while the UK historically is willing to let the US have
permission to conduct operations out of facilities in the UK, Cyprus and
Ascension Island.
This willingness to actively support US operations makes a
significant difference to US planners. Knowing that they can rely on guaranteed
access to facilities, and permissions to permit them to conduct a full range of
operations is vital. Not every country that permits foreign military forces on
its soil is so supportive, or willing to allow the US to carry out operations –
they may put caveats in place preventing airstrikes, or limiting the type of
forces or operations conducted from their facilities.The UK matters to the US
in part because it is prepared to offer secure facilities and not prove to be a
difficult partner state.
The UK also retains a wide range of niche capabilities that
it is willing and able to use in support of wider coalition goals. For instance
the considerable capability offered by Law Enforcement Agencies such as the National
Crime Agency, or extremely capable and effective aid organisations such as
DFID. These are able to work effectively overseas either in conjunction with US
equivalent organisations, or burden share to alleviate pressure on the US.
A good example of this was the indictments against North
Korea last year for various cyber-attacks such as ‘Wannacry’, where the successful
US legal process and attribution of North Korea as the responsible actor occurred
in part due to the support received from UK law enforcement organisations.
This is supported by an exceptionally capable intelligence
community which functions well alongside its US peer group, both bilaterally and
as part of the ‘Five Eyes’ community. The combination of cutting edge
technology, global aspiration and a willingness to tackle real issues such as cyber-crime
or counter terrorism and proliferation issues has meant that the UK intelligence
community brings assets and capabilities that profoundly matter to the US.
The strength of these relationships should not be
underestimated, nor the ability to leverage them with wider diplomatic and
other soft power capabilities too to achieve effects. The UK also continues to possess armed forces which possess
global reach and the ability to self-sustain themselves at considerable
distance from the homeland. There is also still a political willingness to ‘get
hands dirty’ and deploy them into difficult situations, or use them in a highly
challenging situation – such as the so-called ‘day one’ scenarios involving
strikes on difficult targets such as Syria.
The UK operates widely compatible equipment and there is a
high level of policy and operational integration between the two militaries and
national security policy makers which makes it possible for the two nations to
work together on a near seamless basis operationally overseas.
It is important not to take this level of joint integrated
working for granted, bringing two militaries together in a position where both
feel comfortable working with the other and able to operate effectively
together is not easy. Outside of highly scripted exercises, few nations enjoy
genuinely close military relationships, and fewer still feel comfortable sharing
many of their most sensitive operational capabilities with each other. Yet the
UK and US remain in a space where they feel this can be done, and they can work
together.
US and UK warships routinely operate alongside each other as
one force -as seen in Bahrain where a joint MCMV force has operated for years,
or operationally in places like Libya and Syria. There is a level of joint trust
that exists in this relationship that is unparalleled in the world – the only
other nations that come close are the remaining members of the ‘Five-Eyes’
community.
When assessing the state of the UK/US relationship too much
attention is paid by some to the relationships between President and Prime
Minister, ignoring that in the real world of international relations heads of
state/government rarely speak regularly, and far less is paid to the
relationship between the mandarins and the military.
International relationships work best when nations can
determine that they share a determination to see a specific set of policy goals
delivered – be it the invasion of a country or securing change to an international
treaty. While the Prime Minister and President may set the strategic direction
of Government, it is down to policy makers to grease the machinery of state and
ensure this is delivered.
Too little emphasis is given to the vital working
relationships between Officials who engage regularly on all manner of issues
and co-ordinate the activities of their respective governments and who set up
the calls or meetings for their principals. In practical terms the UK/US relationship
works so well because officials are able to work together well. When senior politicians
meet, they are usually discussing issues or concerns identified at working
levels as requiring senior level discussion and intervention.
When assessing the state of a national bilateral
relationship a better guide to its relative strength is asking how often do
policy makers engage with each other at working level, or share ideas and plans
on delivering shared goals? Is the sole engagement formal, highly scripted and
tightly controlled on an annual basis with seniors, or is it more normally
conducted daily by normal officials via emails, meetings and phone calls?
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F35 and Future Carrier - A truly joint UK/US Capability |
People tend not to consider this but it is worth thinking
about. A relationship forged in wartime and honed over decades of co-operation
by tens of thousands of people requires far less very senior level political
leadership attention – it already works, and works very well. Why waste the
time of a busy President or Prime Minister to handle niceties that are pleasant
but won’t materially alter things, when you could deploy them instead on other
pressing issues, where their intervention could help alter things?
While senior level engagement and staff talks do of course
go on, it is worth remembering that the measure of the UK/US relationship is as
much the fact that the relationship is less about establishing senior rapport
and more about continuing working level delivery of shared policy goals.
While it may be trendy to assume that the UK doesn’t matter
as much anymore, a better question to ask when looking for who the US new ‘best
mate’ is is to look closely and ask what nations possess the same combination
of widespread diplomatic reach, global real estate, highly capable security and
military forces and a willingness to use them globally?
The reality is there aren’t really any other players in town
in the same category – for all the occasional talk of how the French are raising
their game, and the fact that Brexit will potentially mean the US has to focus more
on bilateral EU engagement in future than it has in the past, there are no
other nations emerging which really fit the bill?
Add in the combination of a shared past and an ,almost, shared
language (as anyone who has tried speaking the Queens English in rural America
can attest too!) and you realise that the UK is fortunate enough to enjoy a
very effective working relationship with the US that no other nation can match.
This level of co-operation is arguably unparalleled anywhere else on the planet.
The US may have many close relationships with many different
nations and for different reasons, but To those who say the UK/US relationship
is waning, Humphrey would ask them to point out the next nation with the same
traits and capabilities as the UK , with the same shared global interests and
values and the same range of capabilities underpinned by a genuinely close and
effective working level relationship between officials. It may have changed a
lot and had ups (and downs) but when push comes to shove Washington and London
know that they do have a very special relationship.
I agree with all the comments above, but....
ReplyDeleteThis is a statement of the present and past. The future is that Trump's transactional, America first, withdrawal from multinational working approach will permeate through the US political establishment. At the moment we don't see it because we have a generation of civil servants and military leaders who have spent their careers doing rotations to Europe/SK/Japan, who have pushed back or ignored Trump. Another term of Trump, together with the Republican party becoming more isolationist, and those leaders will become the old guard who will be swept away. Trump has succeeded in moving the dial on multilateral engagement, for example no one in the US, of the left or right, is talking about starting a new trans Pacific partnership agreement with US involvement, in part because he is right, the US does spend a lot of resources on protecting other people's countries.
It's time to start planning for the day when we can't rely on the American cavalry coming over the hill when NATO is threatened. For example do we align ourselves to a follow up to F35 or is it time to say we will work with people who want to work with us on developing a new plane, but the US is an industrial competitor.
Do we need to think about how to bring in reserves quickly in order to protect the Baltic countries/Poland? What equipment and tactics will they use, do we have sufficient stocks and are they in the right places? Are the institutions which organise them fit for purpose, when the US element is removed?
The 'special relationship' remains central to our political, intelligence and military institutions, but we must ask is it in OUR national interest? Do we really want to be America's Gurkha - as one Whitehall watcher called it? I doubt few considered the possibility that the USA would 'pivot' to the Pacific, mount an almost worldwide 'global war against terrorism' (GWOT) and elect President Trump.
ReplyDeleteTo continue the relationship it has to be one the PUBLIC see as being legitimate and effective. There clearly is an element of war weariness in the USA over GWOT and the continuing commitment to 'small wars', notably in Afghanistan.
Just to be clear, did china plan for Trumps election back in 1916 ?
ReplyDeleteOr is the time machine just a recent Chinese invention ?
It also means that in 1827 the Chinese were planning to have a disastrous civil war for 22 years and to get invaded by Japan at the cost of 10s of millions dead. It makes you wonder why they bothered.
ReplyDeleteAll part of the long term plan to take over the UK's telecoms network. Damned cunning those Chinese...
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