Delay Re Pay? The 2018 AFPRB report...

Reports on the media over the weekend are focusing on suggestions that the Armed Forces Pay Review Body (AFPRB) may see the annual pay award delayed by a month or two (Paywall Link). This is being seen as a disaster, and some of the reports darkly noted that the MOD civil service was due its award in August and would not see any such delay. The problem with these reports is that they focus on just part of the story, without wider context.

The challenge in delivering an on time pay review award is that the AFPRB needs to consider the evidence for an uplift, make the case for the rise and the Government needs to approve it and ensure funding is available. For years this has been a relatively simple matter – the Govt made clear that a maximum of 1% is available, and that is what the Body has recommended.

This year for the first time there is an opportunity to make the argument for more money for the military. This isn’t as simple as saying – give them 3/4/5%. Any award needs to consider what the right reward is, and whether an across the board pay rise is better than a smaller one, but with much higher targeted levels of increases in retention payments.

For example, the AFPRB may look at evidence which shows that the military across the board do not uniformly require a large pay rise. The fact is that the armed forces are very well paid, and some areas do not struggle with recruitment or retention- extra money here would be welcome, but would not necessarily enhance or improve retention.

Similarly there are some areas that desperately need enhancements to support retention in pinch point trades where experienced people sign off to go to the private sector, taking their experience with them. Often the pay rise is not enormous, but changes to the quality of life can make a huge difference. Here it may be better to allocate money to significantly uplift allowances to target specific areas in the hope of improving retention.

This is a delicate balancing act – too much in one area can lead to wider resentment, but too little can cause people to resign anyway. The challenge for the AFPRB is to get the recommendations right – not an easy task. This also has to be done inside an envelope of affordability – there is no point recommending a 10% pay rise if there is no money to pay for it.

It seems likely that the review will be delayed slightly, presumably to give the AFPRB more time to consider their findings. It is also likely to give the Government time to decide whether to accept the recommendations, or push back on them – the MOD is not beholden to accept the AFPRB review, and can do an entirely different course of action.
 
Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright
Given the financial challenges facing the MOD, there may well be a desire to hold back and understand what financial settlement is reached as part of the mini SDSR currently going on, in order to understand how much room there is to fund a pay rise, or if the Treasury need to provide additional money to cover these costs. The five year funding settlement as part of the last Comprehensive Spending Review will not likely have the headroom in it to cover pay-rises beyond 1%, so delicate negotiations are required.

This means there may be a delay. It doesn’t mean there won’t be a pay rise, and it doesn’t mean that soldiers will be out of pocket. As always there will be a pay run with arrears, ensuring that the pay is balanced out. Its also not exactly huge sums of money – for most junior soldiers they will be due maybe £50-60 in back pay if there is a 1-1.5% rise. It is frustrating to not get the money when it is due, but no one will be out of pocket for very long.

What is dangerously divisive is to suggest that the MOD Civil Service will automatically get its pay rise in August. It is important to understand that the MOD civilians are unlikely to get more than a 1% pay rise, with no sign of popular political or public support to pay more.

Secondly, while August may be the intended month of the pay rise,  there is no guarantee or certainty that it will occur then. Over the last few years delays in agreeing the pay award (essentially trying to distribute the pay rise in a manner to raise lower wages while recognising long service) meant that the actual award date slipped to October or November.  It was exceptionally rare for the MOD Civil Service to see a pay rise in August, and getting several months of salary arrears has become par for the course.

What is frustrating is the suggestion that somehow the MOD Civil Service is trying to ensure it feathers its own nest, while seeing off the military. Not only is it completely untrue, but also for many years the reverse has happened – the armed forces have always enjoyed an on time pay rise, while the MOD civil service has usually had its own pay rise arrive months late.

There is no guarantee that the MOD will get an on time pay rise next year, as the negotiations and outcome are unlikely to be discussed for many more months. August remains a nominal date, but that is it.  This is really a bit of a non story, but once again it is a shame to see efforts made to force a divisive wedge between the civil service and military where none is required.

Comments

  1. Anonymous14 December 2017 at 21:31

    The problem with afprb is credibility, from my experience serving (and plenty others) it simply carries out what the government tells it to award. For all the weighty tomes, furrowed brows and meet the troops they do it all counts for little if the answer is preordained.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Dan9 January 2018 at 13:09

    As usual Sir H speaks some common sense, there are a variety of Pay Review Bodies and they usually report at the same time sometimes as early as December normally January and sometimes as late as Feb, for implementation in April.

    Last year the NHS one for some unknown reason was not published till the March and so staff did not got the rise in April, but got it in May and some backpay in June. As in the end it simply said everyone gets 1% it’s not clear why there was a delay.

    This year the official Treasury line when the process started was same for NHS and Armed Forces, 1% and no more out to 2020, then after the election there was some push back saying this is not realistic, then a budget in November made some noise about Departments can pay more money but they have to find it from existing resource, I.e. we are not paying anyone anymore money but we are moving around who to blame.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Unknown5 February 2018 at 12:07

    I'd also like to add a counter argument.

    If the AFPRB is truly independent of Government, then why would it not be able to make recommendations that it sees fit, regardless of the financial backdrop? An example would be the Parliamentary Pay Review, which in no uncertain terms pointed out that Government should not influence its findings as it was independent.

    Would it not be better for the AFPRB to make its recommendations, which the Government can then pick the bones from. I argue that by hamstringing an independent organisation, that it is in fact not independent!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous12 February 2018 at 12:37

    As an ex civil servant it isnt that simple. There are 1000s of jobs that are not fit for purpose and no longer justified especially in the mod. Many at high levels are culprits where my buddy protection carry on. Do they deserve the 1per pay rise no not naturally all. It is the tax payers purse. But is also the vipers nest of care companies generating profit by coning of the service that they claim its customers needs which is usually false.list of companies who do this.... Cmg brightspark Surrey Choices care unlimited. Again the tax payers foots the bill

    ReplyDelete
  5. Anonymous12 February 2018 at 12:47

    One of the biggest civil service duplicate jobs and money wasters on obsolete jobs at all levels is in fact the AFPrbs own mod depart sppol pensions. Its a disgrace yet again in the ponder of the tax payers purse

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anonymous28 February 2018 at 14:03

    it's ok for MP's to get there pay rises which are more than 1 % for sitting sleeping in parliament and getting paid for it, when our troops are all over the world putting their lives at risk how is that fair

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anonymous5 March 2018 at 21:12

    I think we all understand why pay restraint is required. My concern is that the effect over time isn't fully articulated and I asked the AFPRB if they could include that in their next report. ie what pay would now be if at least inflationary pay rises had been awarded over the period. It would provide the best argument ever for more than 1% and indicate that to restore pay to pre-2008 levels a pay rise of some 15% would be required. They won't though!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Unknown7 March 2018 at 09:26

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete

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