Keep Calm & Carry On.

 

A British F35 jet has been lost at sea, while operating from the aircraft carrier HMS QUEEN ELIZABETH. The sole fact that matters here is that the pilot ejected safely and is okay.

There has been several days of media coverage on this story which has quickly escalated from an aircraft crash into some kind of espionage thriller involving Special Forces, American rescue equipment, and Russian submarines but not Chinese assets as apparently, they already know all there is to know about the F35…

Its easy to breathlessly speculate about what went on, but that’s not the point of this article in the slightest. The only facts that we know is that an aircraft has crashed, and that the pilot ejected – as and when there is more to add, then that will be released.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

There are a few points though that do not relate to loss of the aircraft itself which are worth thinking about in more detail. Firstly, despite some of the ridiculous hysteria on social media, which has been full of people commenting on how ‘embarrassing’ this is, its a good reminder of how rarely UK military aircraft crash these days.

If you look at historical data, then it shows that for decades, flying fast jets was an exceptionally dangerous occupation. In 1956 the RAF lost 6 Hawker Hunter aircraft in the space of just 45 minutes. These were just 6 of no less than 380 British military aircraft and helicopters lost in 1956, which averages out at more than one aircraft lost every day of the year – and this was not an unusual year.

Fast jet flying is and always has been an extremely dangerous business, which requires the highest levels of safety, standards and training to carry out. Over the intervening decades there has been a general decline in losses due to changes in equipment, reliability of machinery and different ways of operating, particularly with new technology, but there is still an element of risk. In particular the Martin Baker ejection seat is worth mentioning – this incident reminds us of the many lives this British company is responsible for saving over many decades.

Carrier aviation in particular remains an extremely dangerous occupation, even if crash rates have dropped. It is important to understand that the combination of fast jets, large warships and complex operating conditions can, and do, sometimes go wrong. We must not assume that aircraft will not crash anymore.

The Wikipedia page covering military aviation accidents for the period 2010-2019 is a good read to understand how risky military aviation is, and how many aircraft have been lost globally during this period.

That said, the current crop of modern British fast jets like the F35 and Typhoon have a phenomenal safety record, being operated in hugely demanding conditions around the globe for many years, and with only a handful lost. It is very telling that the loss of an aircraft is something that has gone from the utterly routine and barely newsworthy, to something that can dominate the media cycle for several days and generate huge national media coverage.

The theme on social media has been peculiar -there have been many posters talking about how embarrassing it is for the UK, or that its somehow a national disgrace that the aircraft crashed, particularly with the US embarked as well. This is utter nonsense – there is no embarrassment in a pilot taking a decision to eject in order to save his life. That is absolutely the right thing to do, and anyone who thinks otherwise has clearly never been faced with the decision on whether to eject or not.

There has been some coverage suggesting that the F35 programme is troubled in some way and that this is a setback for it. Again, this is nonsense – the aircraft first flew 15 years ago, and well over 700 have now been produced flying over 400,000 flying hours. In this time, a total of 5 aircraft (3 American, 1 Japanese and 1 British) have been lost – this is an under 1% loss rate, or one aircraft lost for every 80,000 hours in the sky.

By way of contrast, the Sea Vixen, a British jet used for carrier operations was in service from 1959-1971. Of the 145 aircraft built and operated, no less than 55 were lost in accidents in this period – a loss rate of around 38% of the whole force in just 12 years.

Attrition is to be expected, and when producing estimates of how many aircraft the UK will need for its F35 force, it is reasonable to assume that attrition losses have been factored into the equation when ordering airframes. We should be wary of assuming that national defence has now been threatened as a result.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

The other thing to bear in mind through all of this is that this incident highlights not just the incredibly positive safety record of modern military aviation, but also the strength of the UK’s alliances too.

The F35 is the product of a truly international collaboration among many different nations to put this hugely complex platform into the air. The UK is fortunate to enjoy an extremely close working relationship with many of the current operators of the jet, including the USA.

While there has been some suggestion that the UK will be reliant on the US for support in terms of recovering the aircraft, this does not, and must not, be looked at as some kind of UK failure. The UK has spent many years investing and training in, as well as practically delivering, the ability to recover downed or crashed aircraft and other assets from a variety of locations. There are some outstanding military capabilities based in the UK able to provide this support when needed.

These capabilities include a joint RN/RAF unit based in Boscombe Down, and the MOD also has a dedicated Salvage and Marine Operations (SALMO) unit dedicated to the recovery of assets. This includes a contract with JFD to provide submersibles for seabed recovery if required.

The fact that the Americans may be tasked to provide support indicates though the strength of UK alliances – that the UK can ask the US to provide a more conveniently located unit to assist in the recovery and feel comfortable working with them speaks to the strength of working links between the two nations, and the strength of coalition operations.

Not all nations can be certain of similar help, and those more isolated internationally, for example Russia, could find themselves in a similar situation without any other nation being prepared to help them recover their assets. There is often a strength in alliances that is forgotten at times like this – national pride is sometimes less important than the ability to work to get the job done.

It is vital that the aircraft is recovered, particularly given that other nations may covet access to its secrets. There is little doubt that an international game of cat and mouse is now underway deep beneath the ocean waves, which in turn reminds us of how challenging the international environment is at present. Thankfully the UK and allies remain both highly capable of conducting this sort of salvage operation and monitoring and deterring unwelcome salvage teams.

Mention must be made of the British ability to generate extremely funny memes too to bring morale in difficult times. As ever, the British armed forces are genuinely world beating in their ability to find the humour in any situation, and this case is no exception.

Finally and most importantly it is important to focus on the positives of the CSG deployment. While some will try to see this isolated incident as a negative point, this should not detract from the incredibly positive story that the RN has to tell here. At the tail end of a global deployment which has been involved in all manner of operations, exercises and PHOTEXs, to lose a single aircraft is unfortunate, but changes nothing.

It is, as noted, a sign of how unusual these losses have become that a thoroughly tactical issue that even a few years ago would have gone unremarked outside specialist aviation press, is now front-page news on many papers.

This incident reminds us of the risks involved in this sort of operation, but also tells us many positives about how aviation safety has changed for the better, and how well prepared, and supported the UK is when it comes both to military aviation, and recovery of lost assets

The F35 will remain at the heart of the UK’s carrier strike, and wider defence capability for many decades to come. The Royal Navy and Royal Air Force will continue to remain in the business of conducting fixed wing carrier operations at sea, and brave pilots will continue to fly these jets to keep the UK and allies safe.

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