Shooting Down Nonsense - Why the Falkland Islands are not the 'Mercy of Argentina'...

 

Humphrey has a theory that if you want to create a story that guarantees attention, even though it is based on nothing more than the flimsiest of evidence, suggest that because of the MOD doing or not doing something, the Falkland Islands are at risk from Argentina.

The latest evidence to support this theory comes from an article in the Telegraph, which began with the blood curdling lines that:

“The Falklands will be left at the mercy of Argentina because of a delay in deploying a shield similar to Israel's Iron Dome system, Defence sources have warned.”

This sounds pretty bad doesn’t it – those poor islanders left helplessly at the mercy of an Argentine foe who can attack at a time and place of their choosing, all because a new surface to air missile system hasn’t been deployed. Crikey, that is not good.

LandCeptor Test Firing 0 Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

Stories like this abound in the press over the years, from suggestions that cutting ships mean that the UK ‘won’t be able to retake the Falklands’ (rather ignoring that the whole point of UK defence policy is not to lose them again) to breathless suggestions that any form of change places the islands at risk. There is perhaps a sense of balance lacking in this debate, and context too.

The most important thing to remember is firstly, the events of the Falkland’s War is now almost 40 years ago. We are as far away now from the battles of the Falkland’s War, as the Allied invasion of Italy was in 1982. It’s a very long time ago now, no matter how you look at it.

In the intervening period the UK has spent an extremely large amount of money ensuring that there is an extremely effective layered defence in place for the islands. This includes provision of a major military facility at RAF Mount Pleasant, which was the last fast airbase to be built by the UK, and reflects the lessons identified throughout the Cold War in how to build an airfield that can survive in wartime.

As anyone who has been to the Islands will know, the site is a defensive stronghold intended to pose an enormous challenge to any invading force, which will long since have lost the element of surprise by the time it manoeuvres into position to attack.

There is a very effective combination of sensors, and defences in place including highly advanced interceptors in the form of the Typhoon fighter jet, supported by tankers, cargo aircraft and helicopters. There is also an effective early warning system, and a maritime presence too (more of that later).

There is no doubt that the Rapier, even the version currently in service, is approaching the end of its life. As with all weapons, its relative capability is slightly less relatively speaking than when it entered service, as other more advanced equipment has come into use. Therefore replacements come about – to ensure that the ability to defend against the threat remains fit for purpose.

But, we need to be wary of assuming that the islands are somehow utterly defenceless. While the MOD has confirmed that there has been a slightly delay for entry into service as a result of COVID, does this mean that Argentina has now got the ability to take over the islands at its whim?

In short, no it does not.

The Argentine armed forces of today are a pale shadow of their former selves. Starved of cash since the 1980s, very little new equipment has entered service for many years, and their military is both smaller and far less capable than in the past.

The main offensive fixed wing aircraft of the Argentine Air Force is the Skyhawk, a variant of an aircraft design which first flew in 1954. The Argentine version, the A4R, is an upgraded variant which entered service in 1998. Current estimates put the Argentine Air Force as having maybe 23 A4R aircraft in their inventory, with no more than 6 being credited as operational as of 2020, probably for the air defence mission.  

For the sake of completeness, the Argentine Navy possess around 5 Super Etendard jets, all of which are currently assessed to be non-operational. This is it for the Argentine fast jet force.

In other words, the current aviation threat to the Falkland Islands currently comprises about half a dozen operational aircraft based on a 67yr old jet design that has had only limited upgrades since the 1990s.

Efforts to acquire various Western designed aircraft have consistently fallen foul of the UK refusing to permit the export, due to the large part of UK designed components in designs (a good reminder of the size and reach of the UK aerospace industry). There are persistent rumours and suggestions that Argentina may be on the verge of acquiring various different foreign aircraft from other countries, including Russia and China.

But any such move would take years to come to fruition – realistically to get to the stage where Argentina has sufficient fast jets to pose a credible operational capability, plus spares and trained people is at least five, probably more like 10 plus years to deliver. This is plenty of warning time to enhance the UK defences on the islands to ensure any threat change is matched and overmatched by a UK response.

Of course, all of this debate is somewhat nugatory given that the Argentines do not possess the ability to launch an amphibious attack on the islands, and certainly not enough credible forces and mass to land, take and then hold the Mount Pleasant complex against ferocious defences and the inevitable counter attack. To be in this space requires wishful thinking that would make even Tom Clancy blush…

That’s not to say there isn’t an issue with the Falkland Islands – sadly Argentina has shown scant regard for the democratic wishes of its inhabitants, who have clearly and repeatedly expressed their desire to remain affiliated to the UK.

The current Argentine government has decided to pursue a populist approach, mirroring the Kirchner Government in trying to see all engagement with the UK through the prism of the Falklands, and not in a more constructive manner. It is a great shame to see the hugely positive relations of previous years founder, due to a desire to pursue a nakedly populist foreign policy that places national pride above the right of self determination for others.

However, even though relations seem to be in one of their perennial downcycles, this does not mean that Argentina is suddenly going to step up and start attacking the Falkland Islands.

Suggestions that the islands are at ‘Argentina’s mercy’ is utter unfettered nonsense, unless of course we are suggesting that UK defences would be overmatched by half a dozen pensionable fighter jets?

The problem with articles like this is that they do rather detract from good points that could be made. There is a reasonable case to be made that more needs to be done to ensure that British air defence capability remains up to the task – particularly in a world of deployable divisions and global operations. There are some extremely capable air forces out there and ensuring that the UK has the ability to properly defend airspace of interest, against peer threats, does matter. To that end, it is vital that the Sky Sabre system enters service as quickly as is reasonably practicable – but that does not mean though that the sovereignty of the islands is at risk.

While the MOD was robust in defending its position and pointing out the general silliness of this article, it also made the somewhat misleading statement that the Falkland Islands are ‘supported by frigates’.

MOD Tweet

While the Royal Navy presence in the region regularly varies, there is normally only one vessel stationed in the South Atlantic, the Batch 2 River class, HMS FORTH, who has been on station for about 18 months now.  Although a very capable design, the River class are an offshore patrol vessel, and not a frigate, which is a very different type of ship, for very different missions.  

There has not been a frigate visit to the Falkland Islands for about five years, with HMS PORTLAND being the last frigate visitor that the author can recall. Given the significant realignment of RN deployments and the move towards Carrier Strike Group style deployments, with the River class being used for forward presence, the days of seeing roving frigates in the Falklands have gone.

 It is likely to be five or six years until the Type 31 enters service before a frigate is dispatched again to the region (assuming of course that FORTH is replaced on station by a Type 31). In the meantime, the chances of a frigate being deployed into the region are extremely slim.

There is no doubt a very capable and well-equipped British military presence in the region, it just doesn’t include any frigates. Although a seemingly minor point, it is frustrating to see what could diplomatically be termed as ‘misleading’ information being issued by an MOD press office.

The reason for this concern is on two fronts – firstly, from a technical perspective, it is concerning to see that an MOD press account is issuing factually incorrect information. Who is checking this and making sure that accurate statements are being issued? If this slips through the net, what other mistakes are being made?

It is also concerning because it could be read that the MOD is, intentionally or otherwise, misleading the public and media about the level of defences in the islands. It is vital to be able to trust the statements issued by Government as being truthful. Unfortunately, this is not the case here – which again begs the question, is anything else being tweeted that is not completely accurate?

This matters because how can complaints be made about inaccurate media coverage if the Government itself cannot get its facts correct? Suddenly the appearance of the “every vehicle is a tank, every ship is a battleship, every aircraft is a stealth bomber” tropes make more sense. Its important to fact check both in the media, and in government too.

Hopefully, this story is an aberration, and one that reminds us of the more hyperbolic aspects of reporting in general – taking any perceived capability gap and turning it into a risk that doesn’t exist except in a series of extremely unlikely. One must hope that this is not the start of a new trend, of breathless and inaccurate coverage, met by and responded to with misleading, or poorly fact checked information in return. The nation and public as a whole deserve better.