Why is OP FORTIS a Good News Story for the Royal Navy?

 

The Ministry of Defence has confirmed that a Royal Navy Task Group will deploy on a global exercise in early May, representing the first operational deployment for the Carrier Strike Group. This is a landmark moment and one that reflects the culmination of years of work and preparation by many people.

The deployment has aroused some strong feeling by commentators, deploying the view that these are floating targets, that the UK apparently doesn’t have any jets to put on the carrier and that in a war they’d be sunk in moments. There is a wider question too around the wisdom of the UK deploying a carrier it apparently doesn’t need…

This deployment is a good chance to let the Royal Navy showcase several different parts of its very exciting future, and it’s helpful to understand why it is so important, both for the RN and the other services, and also UK allies.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

From an operational perspective the deployment (known as FORTIS) is a good opportunity for the Royal Navy to return to the role of big global deployments. For a few years now this has been something that hasn’t happened very often, due to the combination of older ships paying off, operational commitments and wider challenges of COVID. This trip will be a good chance to get the RN back in this game.

FORTIS represents the first in what is likely to be an enduring series of deployments globally by a UK Carrier Strike Group, and will help define how this exciting concept really works. It’s a good way to test out the theories, the doctrine and the reference guides, and ensure that when brought together, this concept really does work.

It’s a good way to road test what will be the future model of Royal Navy operations for decades to come – namely the use of big strike groups deploying globally to support UK interests, while smaller RN vessels are permanently based around the world on a daily basis.

The future vision for the RN, as laid down in the Integrated Review is an exciting one – it sees a return to old stations, and an enhanced presence in existing ones. The Royal Navy will have ships permanently operating in the regions where the deployments will go, reinforcing the scale of UK commitment and presence around the world.

There have been some who have argued that this global presence is an irrelevance, and that the Royal Navy shouldn’t deploy to areas that are far away and seemingly of little concern to us. Yet this ignores the fact that the UK is not only an island nation, dependent on the sea for our food and commerce, but also that the challenges that threaten our stability are unlikely to occur within the littoral waters of our own islands.

You only need look at the blocking of the Suez Canal earlier this year, and the ensuing disruption to trade and supply chains to realise that we are part of a much bigger interconnected world. If we turn our backs on this, we may find things happening that can impact on our way of life, without the means to change it for the better.

Global deployments help the UK achieve better defence relationships, which in turn help build capacity and capability in local forces, that can help improve the maritime security of the local region. Carrier deployments help attract attention in a special way-  able to act as a platform of diplomacy and influence, the ship and her escorts can be used to host dignitaries, support UK industry pitches and help act as a floating platform for UK diplomatic interests.

They also embody flexibility – the group will be splitting up at various points, with ships breaking away to fly the flag in different regions – for example sending ships into the Black Sea as a gentle reminder of the importance of freedom of navigation, and of the UK’s support for Ukraine against wider Russian aggressive activity.

Maritime power offers a uniquely flexible approach, able to stand off and observe in international waters, or move at speed to provide presence where it is required. Unlike overflights or ground exercises, maritime presence is both unobtrusive and lower risk, but also gently visible if required and helpful to send a signal to those who need to see it.

At the same time it can also be amended quickly – it is almost certain that the ships in the group will not complete their deployment as originally planned. Instead plans will change, events will happen, and replanning will be done in order to get the new task done.

This is a demonstration both of the flexibility of maritime power, enabling a rapid change of plan, but also the critical importance of both having an effective staff, able to support this sort of change (and lets be honest, we don’t hear the phrase ‘hooray for the battlestaff’ often enough for what is a vital but thankless task). It’s a testament too to the RN’s investment in effective logistics and other enablers that allow a rapid change of plans, port visits and potentially supporting other operations to be carried out almost seamlessly – maritime power is indeed flexible, but only works thanks to the planning efforts of many staff officers.

The deployment is a good chance to show the world about UK defence priorities and interests, sailing in waters of interest and tension to some, but also to show that the UK takes its responsibilities as a leading international power seriously. The presence of the group in the Far East is a timely reminder of the importance of the ‘Indo-Pacific Tilt’ to UK strategy, and the realisation that events in this region will, whether we like it or not, impact on our way of life back home.

A reliance on a global supply chain means that if shipping is disrupted in the Indo-Pacific region, or if tensions make it harder to conduct routine sailing, then this hurts our lives at home. Disruption to the supply chain disrupts UK businesses and can cost UK jobs – if the RN can help deploy to the region to monitor security issues, and provide a presence that helps keep difficult situations under control, then this is fundamentally a good thing.

The international angle of the deployment is reflected in the makeup of the group. Two foreign vessels will be integrated into the battlegroup – a Royal Netherlands Navy and a US Navy escort will accompany this deployment.

This is not something which should be seen as a tacit admission that the Royal Navy doesn’t have enough ships and is relying on foreign escorts. Instead it’s a good news story about the ability of the RN to work with other nations in training deployments like this and build up the strength of links to ensure that in the event of operations, there is a seamless transition into a warfighting task force.

The US and French Navies also deploy regularly with foreign escorts as part of their groups, for example the Canadian and Danish Navies have both had ships participate as escorts for US carrier battle groups. The reality of the world is that we’re all closely linked via NATO and have an excellent working relationship – this sort of deployment is a great chance to put this to the test.

Similarly the embarkation of US F35 Joint Strike Fighters is a really good opportunity to deepen the links between the UK and USMC. No other nations on earth have the ability to deploy a truly integrated carrier airwing, and the QUEEN ELIZABETH class have been designed from the keel up to embark, operate and sustain the USMC onboard. These will be joint ships, with the RN offering a very welcome ‘big deck’ for the US to operate from, and the joint commitment serves as a timely reminder of the strong links between London and Washington.

From the outset the intent has been to embark US aircraft onboard, and they will be doing this for many years to come. The UK is not short of aircraft and asking the US to make up the numbers – it has intentionally designed this as an opportunity for joint operations.

We know we will never go to war in isolation again (this has been a fact of UK policy for almost 70 years), so why wouldn’t we take every possible opportunity to train and operate together with our closest military partner? If a shooting war starts, then the chances are we will be going to war with these people, so why not train as much as possible with them to maximise our chances of winning?

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

The usual criticism is that these ships are somehow vulnerable to attack and that some kind of super duper ‘vunder veapon’ will sink them all in the opening seconds of a conflict. Apparently they’re all going to be sitting ducks, and all manner of missiles exist to sink carriers, so why bother buying or operating them?

In the 1950s the Royal Navy was obsessed with the concept of a ‘Sverdlov killer’ – namely the ability to sink the most effective ships the Soviet Union possessed that posed a threat to maritime trade and the ability to disrupt reinforcement convoys. By the 1980s that threat had changed into sinking the very capable SSN’s that the Soviets had entering service – as the threat changes, so does our ability to counter it.

The fact is that ever since the dawn of time weapons have emerged to counter other weapon systems. Warfare is a story of evolving the weapon systems at hand to meet the threats in a way that helps you win. It would be astounding if some nations that were concerned about the threat posed by US and other carrier operators had not looked in some way at trying to find a way to sink carriers.

What we need to remember though is that when considering this threat, it is perhaps helpful to do the following. Namely, take a deep breath, and remember that there are several important considerations when it comes to the latest ‘super killer missile’ that has emerged.

Firstly, your opponent needs to be able to find you, know where you are and ensure that they have the means to predict where you are going to be when the missile arrives at its target. This is not as easy as some people think it is, and when warships don’t want to be found and are doing their best to hide, it can be borderline impossible.

Ignore the stories of ‘but on this exercise the foreign submarine did this’ – these were highly constrained exercises, not conducted under real world conditions where all manner of sneaky tactics, different operating methods and different ways of using equipment would happen. There are some secrets that aren’t given away easily, especially not on an exercise others can observe…

The enemy also has to be certain that its missile will hit the target, and that it doesn’t fail in flight. Again this is not as easy as it may sound. The world has never seen a US or UK carrier battle group deploy a properly integrated air defence network in a way that is designed to deal with incoming threats for real. Hopefully it never will.

Should that day happen, then it will become clear that there is a lot of things that can be done to keep the escort ships and carrier far safer than may appear to be the case. Both the UK and US invest a lot of money in very niche, very capable and very discrete electronic warfare capabilities intended to counter a wide range of threats. For very obvious reasons these never get discussed, and their capability is not publicly known or understood.

It is safe to say though that if you think that the likely threat hasn’t been considered, or that the ways to counter it haven’t been though through, then you are mistaken. The key difference between now and the navies of 70-100 years ago is that just because a ship isn’t bristling with self defence weapons, it does not mean that it isn’t armed and very capable of taking care of itself should the need arise. You do not always need a kinetic solution to a kinetic problem…

What this means is that yes in theory all manner of scenarios can be conjured up involving a carrier sinking in four minutes through some incredible combination of events. Similar scenarios could be run on how RAF efficiency could be lost due to airfield battle damage, or the Army could descend into near civil war if definitive guidance on ‘sleeves rolled up vs rolled down and how to wear a 58 pattern belt’ is finally issued. But to get to this point requires a war to actually start.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

In reality these ships are very capable at doing what the UK wants them to do – which means that for probably over 99% of their lives, they will be involved in the full range of maritime operations, and supporting and enhancing UK and allied national security goals. The ships can go to war if required, but don’t ignore that for the vast majority of a planned 50 year life, they won’t. They exist to do so much more, and this deployment is a great way to remind ourselves of that fact.

It is also worth reminding ourselves that for all the talk of carriers becoming obsolete, they are definitely a popular purchase by other countries. China has just commissioned several major warships including a large helicopter carrier, and further carriers will commission soon. That the Chinese are confident of the power of the carrier and its future role suggests that this is not a dying breed of ship – instead it is one that will continue to have long term relevance for decades to come.

To that end then OP FORTIS is a great way for the Royal Navy to really get back into the carrier operations game. It will see RN ships operating all over the world and returning to waters they’ve not been seen in for some years.

In perhaps the most wonderfully apt moment, the group is scheduled to take part in the 50^th anniversary of the Five Power Defence Agreement (FPDA) exercise Bersama Lima later this year. There is a lovely irony that one of the first major exercises for the QE will be to support a defence arrangement that emerged as a result of UK withdrawal in the 1960s, following the cancellation of the carrier CVA-01 - the previously planned QUEEN ELIZABETH.

That half a century later a new generation of Royal Navy carrier battle groups sails into the Indo-Pacific region to play a meaningful role in the regions security, using facilities and alliances built as a result of the commitments from decades previously is a strong testament to the enduring importance of sea power.  

OP FORTIS is the result of years of hard work and planning by many people determined to see the CSG concept to fruition. It embodies so much of what defines the Royal Navy as a globally focused and deployable navy, drawing on core capabilities from across the Royal Navy and wider defence, and drawing on a global support network that will see UK diplomats, logistical support and other services all play their part.

Its an extremely exciting opportunity and one that helps reaffirm that the future is very bright for the Royal Navy as it looks to a global future as one of the globes premier warfighting navies.