Is the Royal Navy selling Type 23 Frigates to Greece? No, probably not...

In what has to be one of the surest outbreaks of ‘summer silly season’ in a few years, there are reports online today, which have made it as far as a Daily Telegraph comment piece in under 12 hours, that the Royal Navy is poised to sell some Type 23 frigates to Greece.

To say that this is an odd story is an understatement, it seems to have materialised from nowhere and been hosted on a single Greek website prior to being picked up more widely. The veracity of the article is unclear, but it is worth considering a few points when hearing rumours of ship sales like this.

The Type 23 force, currently 13 hulls strong, has been in service since the late 1980s and represents the backbone of the RN escort force. Used for both general purpose patrol (five hulls), and for specialised anti-submarine warfare work (eight hulls), the class has been worked extremely hard in its life.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

Originally designed for an 18 year life cycle in the north Atlantic, all of the hulls are now comfortably into their middle age, and some are approaching the end of their lives. Paying off dates have moved around over the years but currently the force is likely to see HMS ARGYLL pay off in 2023, with a rolling decommissioning programme under way after that point.

Work on their replacements is now well under way, with the River Class Batch 2 already doing some of the low level maritime constabulary tasks the force used to do, while the Type 26 and 31 frigates will hit the water over the next few years.

What this means now is that the RN is inevitably starting to think about ‘what next’ for the ships and where they may end up. The Royal Navy, like every major navy, will give thought to the ‘end of life plan’ for its ships. Disposal is an essential part of the cycle as you cannot just park a warship up a quiet creek somewhere and forget about it, leaving her to rust away.

What this means is that as we approach the first planned paying off dates, the RN will have begun giving thought to what happens to the ships, judges the material condition of them, any planned offloading of spare parts and material for transfer to other ships in the class, or their successors (some equipment is due to be transferred into the Type 26 force for example).

There will be consideration of which ships could be run on as a going concern, versus which are likely to be so elderly and fragile that their resale value will be practically zero. What may happen is that in doing this work, it is identified that it could, technically, be possible to sell a batch of ships out to a foreign navy for further use.

The challenge with selling ships second hand though is making sure that the navy that is buying them gets a going concern. Traditionally most RN ships sold abroad tend to be sold from service – e.g, they pay off, and very quickly move onto another navy for a refit package and then further use – a good example of this is HMS CLYDE, which decommissioned late last year and has now been sold on to the Royal Bahraini Navy. For a good list of former RN ships currently in foreign service, then this great article by Save The Royal Navy is well worth a read. 

In this case then the RN may have identified that it could technically be possible, if so directed, to sell a batch of these ships abroad, and a short list of nations that could accept them as a going concern. This list is likely to be pretty small – there are few countries in the market for second hand frigates, and the challenges linked to technology transfers, and ensuring the equipment onboard is sold to trusted partners means that realistically very few countries will be in the market for a batch of Type 23 frigates.

The wider question too is that of balancing off the needs of the Royal Navy versus the needs of the new owner. If for example the deal is contingent on the ships coming ‘sold as seen’ with only minor work to remove UK specific equipment and install new national capabilities, then this may cause a challenge.

The RN has plans for moving much of the equipment off these ships and in using it to keep the remaining ships in service until the mid 2030s, which may require the ships being sold to undergo a hefty refit and removal / reinstallation of kit first.

Installing new equipment, such as weapon systems, combat systems and radars on to a ship is never an easy business. Trying to do some on a nearly 30 year old vessel, comfortably past its prime, and which may need an extensive multi-year refit to do this work is likely to represent a ‘non value for money solution’.

The cost involved to get the ships to a reasonable operating standard, particularly when linked to the likely return on the investment is limited and may not be judged worthwhile. No matter how good the ‘for sale’ price is, if you then have to spend a fortune to get it working as you want and then can only get 5-10 years life from the ship, is it worth it, or better to buy new ones?

Trying to work out where rumours like this come from is almost impossible to determine. It is technically possible that some very informal chats have occurred via staff channels – for example a request from the Greeks to ask if any ships are available and when that might be.

Alternatively it could be the maritime equivalent of trying to sniff out interest by indicating you wish to do something. By saying ‘we want to buy Type 23’, you’ve essentially flagged your keen interest to the UK that you are a serious buyer, and helps low level engagement occur, or helps the UK more formally reject the interest.

This tactic was last seen a couple of years ago when repeated rumours circulated that the Brazilian Navy was going to buy some RFA tankers (the WAVE class were seen as likely targets). These reports circulated in Brazilian naval circles, quickly reposted on media channels and got some attention.

The MOD was forced to publicly deny that any WAVE class was for sale, and that negotiations had not been underway. The source of the story was never clear, was it wishful thinking and sending a signal to London that backfired, or was it a genuine misinterpretation of the situation?

The Greeks do have form for suggesting they are on the verge of buying new in service ships, according to some reports in 2018 they suggested openly that they were about to buy US ARLEIGH BURKE class destroyers. There appeared to have been a genuine desire to try to acquire a pair of BURKE class, with some reports going so far as to name the vessels going to enter Greek service – naturally, nothing came of it.

Now it could be possible that this entire tactic is something of a bigger game, namely the desire to try to force a good commercial deal with whichever shipbuilder the Greek Navy is currently in negotiations with. By hinting that second hand is an option and that a deal is close, it may be a wider tactic to force a better cost offer that benefits the Greeks.

The fact that a Defence Review is underway in the UK may help muddy the waters further. It is entirely possible that as part of the review, work may look at various force packages for the RN involving the same, more or less escort ship numbers in an attempt to work out the force level that is both needed and also affordable.

As part of this work it is possible that some very initial exploratory work may have been done on the sales options open should ships be decommissioned, and identify levels of interest. This would matter because if it was clear that foreign partners were only interested in ships as a running concern, and that they didn’t want lengthy refitting work done, this could rule out the Type 23 force.

Alternatively it may identify that the ships that need selling are those closest to a refit anyway (hence the decision back in the 2000s to pay off 3 x Type 23s and sell them to Chile as all required a major refit package in RN service that was suddenly no longer required).

By understanding the demand for the ships, the likely market conditions and the potential hulls that could be sold, this provides invaluable information to the RN about what savings could be realised from the sale of a batch of Type 23s if required.

What this does not mean though is that a deal is going to be done. The defence review is not finished, there is no decision on force structures or levels and the idea that the RN would prejudge the findings of this by some months to agree to a ‘hot sale’ to Athens is fanciful at best.

This of course all assumes that the Greek Navy actually wants a Type 23 in service. The ships are very old, they have been worked very hard and it is fair to say that their material condition, particularly on the older ones is ‘interesting’. An initial inspection by the Greek Navy may result in a rapid withdrawal of interest in the ships…

While this may sound odd, the loss of some of the oldest and poorest state of the force in the Defence Review is unlikely to result in any tears from parts of the Royal Navy. The ability to pay off elderly resource intensive hulls and free up people to properly crew remaining ships would be a genuine operational gain.

There is always a danger of clinging to escort hull numbers as a metric beyond the point where it is useful. With an escort force essentially of 17 active hulls, many of which are old and approaching the point where really tough calls are needed on what to do with them, letting  them go may be emotionally difficult, but operationally is the right call to ensure those that are left are properly supported.

There is a strong argument that in some scenarios, it may be much better to have a navy of 14 - 16 hulls for now that is properly crewed and maintained, than struggle to keep 19 going and waste scarce maintenance resources on some ships that are ever less likely to see significant operational service again.

What happens next? Well its hard to tell – we’re deep into defence review territory, meaning that rumours like this will continue to circulate for some time to come. The trick is to not believe anything you read though until such point as it is confirmed by the MOD. Until that point there is little reason to worry, and nothing to be gained by it. It will all become clear in the fullness of time.