To Infinity and Beyond! Tornado and the RAF turning 100

While the long Easter weekend heralds a period of much needed time off for many, it is also a time when media organisations tend to rely on skeleton staff, putting individual reporters to cover a range of desks, rapidly copying, pasting and slightly modifying news off the press wire and other papers to provide ‘news’.

This weekend saw a classic example of where the media managed to take two sets of facts, mix them together and turn this into a story that has all the classic hallmarks of being tabloid outrage and scandal. There were breathless accounts that due to defence cuts, and despite being on operations in the Middle East, the Tornado was being axed and replaced by just 12 F35 aircraft next year. It was also accompanied by quotes from various senior retired officers who frankly should have known better. This rather unhelpfully came out on the weekend of the 100^th Birthday of the Royal Air Force, trying to provide a very negative story to counteract a genuinely positive good news weekend.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

What is really going on?

The Tornado GR4 is approaching the end of a very long life in UK service, in which it has evolved from a medium bomber designed to carry tactical nuclear weapons and conventional munitions on the Central Front, into an aircraft capable of operating globally in support of a diverse range of missions. The first flight occurred in 1974 (44 years ago), and in total the UK acquired some 385 aircraft across two main variants – the Ground Attack version (220) and the Fighter version (165).   

The Tornado is a great example of the versatility of airpower and the flexibility of adapting an airframe over a long period in service. The fighter version left service after replacement by the Typhoon, although it was a successful interceptor in its intended role (tackling soviet long-range aviation coming over the GIUK gap) and then in a secondary ‘wild weasel’ type role carrying anti radar missiles.

The GR4 variant is still in service to this day (albeit in very low numbers) providing a range of highly capable mission roles including strategic strike through the Storm Shadow cruise missile (albeit this capability is limited to a niche range of target sets), delivery of precision guided munitions, close air support and also reconnaissance using the RAPTOR pod.

In terms of continuous front-line service in its intended role, the Tornado is probably the longest served aircraft in RAF history, serving on the front line from the early 1980s until today. This is akin to the Spitfire still being in front line service and doing QRA from the late 1930s until the late 1970s!

But, no matter how successful an aircraft is, there will come a point when it is no longer able to meet the challenges of the front line, spare parts get harder to obtain and it falls behind its peer group in terms of capability and survivability.

The Tornado replacement programme has a chequered history, originally forming the Future Offensive Air System (FOAS) project in the early 1990s, and then evolving into the Deep Persistent Offensive Capability (DPOC) which in turn was cancelled in 2010. These programmes looked to provide the capability needed to replace the Tornado in its strike role but were run at a point when arguably technology was on the cusp of transitioning from manned to unmanned systems, and also when resources were tight. The current thinking appears to be linked to ongoing efforts with France to develop joint capability, which may feed into long term replacement.

Any replacement programme must consider the balance between a manned/unmanned fleet mix, the export opportunities that there may be to reduce unit cost (and the challenges of exporting unmanned under existing treaties like the MTCR), and primarily the missions you want the platform to carry out. You also have to balance off issues like survivability and the issue of whether you want the platform to carry out ‘Day 1’ strikes as a peer coalition partner alongside the US, with the cost and challenges this brings, or go for a cheaper less capable platform which can be bought in larger numbers, but would probably not survive heavily contested air defences.

 Both manned and unmanned offer opportunities, but also costs and challenges. A truly capable unmanned platform is probably going to be so expensive that it is as costly as a manned platform, whilst moving to unmanned has long term implications for the future of the UK aviation industry – particularly BAE Systems plants in Warton. However, the cost of a new manned jet is prohibitively expensive, no nation other than the US and China can afford to field an entirely new 5^th/6^th generation design alone without compromising on many aspects or overall numbers.

The added challenge is that aircraft fleets cost a lot of money to keep in service, and the more fleets you have, the more expensive they become. One of the reasons why the UK chose to delete fleets wholesale like the Harrier and Jaguar forces was because if you need to reduce budgets, then scrapping a small number of front line squadrons doesn’t really save that much money.

The real savings come from switching off the support contracts, maintenance issues, training pipeline (both for pilots and ground staff), shutting down infrastructure (like bases and hangars and everyone working on them), and all the associated trials and safety case work required to keep the platform safe and able to fly safely in UK or other airspace. If you consider the amount of work needed just to maintain a single jet engine, the depth of the supply chain needed for parts, the recruiting and training of people with the right skills and experience to maintain them and all the work required to keep it up to date, you realise just how expensive a modern aircraft fleet is to operate.

The RAF has intentionally sought over the years to reduce significantly the number of types and variants it flies, primarily because this allows them to get maximum value for money and free up resources better used elsewhere. Most other air forces are doing the same – cutting down their fast jet fleets to get the best out of them. In future the RAF force is going to comprise two jet types – the Typhoon and the F35 Lightning.

Filling the Gap

The GR4 force has been arguably living on borrowed time for a few years now – running itself down post SDSR2010 and 15 as its planned end of life was brought forward, while efforts were made to integrate the capability onto the Typhoon and F35 force. Op SHADER arguably brought about a reprieve for the force, with the demands of needing to provide airpower into the Middle East seeing it extended during the campaign to free Iraq from ISIS tyranny.

Now that Iraq is in a more stable position, and the work on getting the key systems that have made Tornado so indispensable (Brimstone, Storm Shadow and Meteor) integrated onto the Typhoon force is also well advanced, the time is now possible to plan the retirement of the Tornado from RAF service. The future will see the capability provided in three main ways – the Typhoon, F35 and unmanned systems like Predator derivatives, all capable of filling the many roles that Tornado has done with great success.

For the F35 specifically, the force is due to enter service this year, with the planned arrival of 617 Squadron into the UK due to occur very soon. The UK already has at least 15 aircraft in the air from an initial purchase of 48 intended to operate both on land and from the QUEEN ELIZABETH class carrier. The planned buy was 138 airframes, although whether this aspiration survives various spending reviews isn’t clear. Whatever happens, the UK is clear that the long-term future of manned aviation will be built around both airframe types that have the potential to be in service for decades to come.

The key message is firstly ‘don’t panic’, the Tornado isn’t being axed and replaced by only 12 jets. Instead the force is being run down according to a well-developed plan that sees the capability transferred to the other two fast jet fleets as they ramp up in numbers and reach. The second message is ‘don’t believe everything you read in the papers on Bank Holiday weekends’ because it is easy to conflate various issues and assume one thing, when the reality is far more positive and straight forward.

The RAF Today

It’s a great shame that this story broke on the 100^th anniversary of the founding of the Royal Air Force because it perhaps took attention away from what was a great day and a moment for genuine celebration. 100 years after it was first formed, the RAF has gone from strength to strength, and today finds itself operating a force more capable of delivering effects than ever before.

The UK has maintained a truly global looking force, capable of long distance power projection and able to operate across a wide range of military capabilities in a manner that makes it a genuine world leader. The Typhoon and Tornado force have repeatedly shown their ability over many years to deliver highly accurate strikes on enemy targets with astounding precision. When you compare the big Bomber Command raids of WW2 where achieving accuracy was highly challenging to even hit the right town (particularly in the early war years), to today where a modern aircraft can, quite literally, identify which window the missile will enter, the ability to strike is greatly enhanced.

A lot of people argue that numbers matter – which is true to a point. But Humphrey would argue that it is less about numbers, and more the effect you wish to achieve. The massed bomber raids of WW2, particularly those targeting infrastructure or the enemy’s’ ability to fight relied on mass to get through to deliver a relatively paltry number of bombs in a vague area. Todays aircraft are far more survivable, thanks to the advances in defensive aids suites (a major UK defence industry in its own right), and able to deliver the same effect with much greater accuracy. When comparing like for like, do not look at the numbers, look at the mission you want to do and how effective modern aircraft are at delivering it.

Todays RAF enjoys an almost unmatched ability to deliver everything from long range strategic cruise missile strikes through Storm Shadow (which excels at degrading Command & Control networks), through to close air support with bombs and brimstone missiles. There is a level of accuracy here that makes it exceptionally effective at supporting UK operations and delivering airpower.

But the modern RAF is not just about the delivery of ordnance onto enemy locations. When you consider the broader range of capability it possesses, you realise very quickly why the RAF is seen as a valuable partner of choice. The ISTAR force (Sentry, Sentinel, Shadow etc) provides commanders with strong understanding of the battlespace and an ability to provide vital intelligence to both Land and Maritime forces too.

The Strategic airlift force comprising the Voyager, A400M, C130J, and C17 force based out of Brize Norton gives the UK arguably the worlds second most capable strategic lift capability after the USA. When you look at the sheer range of platforms and how they can quickly reach globally bringing equipment, troops or humanitarian aid, it is clear that the RAF excels at being able to intervene globally as required. One of the abiding images of 2017 was that of the A400M force quickly deploying into the West Indies as part of OP RUMAN, delivering hope and aid to people whose lives had collapsed among the nightmare of a hurricane. How many people owe their lives today to the work of this force?

Finally, the RAF operates an exceptional rotary wing force built around the Chinook and Puma fleets. It is the worlds second largest Chinook operator, able to deploy them on land, or increasingly at sea. This provides valuable assistance and reach that helps commanders on the ground deploy assets as required.

Chaff over Basra

This is all underpinned by an extensive ground force which has been tweaked to deliver both operationally deployable HQ elements (the so called- expeditionary air wing), and also support routine operations at home and deliver capabilities like air defence radar networks, satellite communications and battlespace management. The RAF Regiment continue to play a role in ground defence, while the Movers still exist, primarily some would argue, to act as a means of winding up the other Services.

This potent force is not just a paper tiger held at home to look good for flypasts. It is globally deployable and deployed – operating out of the UK’s extensive network of both sovereign overseas airbases in Gibraltar, Cyprus, Ascension and the Falklands, and allied bases such as across the Middle East, or with partners like Japan and Korea. The UK is often asked to provide its capabilities to help others – be it strategic airlift to help France in Mali, or reconnaissance Tornado capability in Nigeria to help hunt for kidnapped schoolgirls.

On a typical day there will be RAF aircraft and detachments operating on every continent of the planet doing everything from airlifting troops and cargo through to conducting QRA and dropping ordnance on enemy forces. The RAF is not a hotel bound force of war dodging loafers, despite the ridiculous stereotypes that still permeate the internet and some Messes. It is a very busy force that is operating at a very high tempo.

The real concern must be the long-term sustainability of its people and getting manpower to a level to ensure that the force is not broken. The pattern of detachments places significant burdens on pinch points, with many personnel deploying on repeated operational tours across the world – often probably more than their Army counterparts.

RAF manpower is built on a cadre of exceptionally skilled and very highly trained individuals with a high level of technical skills and training intended to keep aircraft flying. This means the pipeline is long and slow to get people into the trained strength and is also vulnerable to disruption if people leave. The challenge for the manpower planners is to try and keep recruiting and retaining highly capable people to meet this operational tempo without breaking their home and family lives to the extent that they leave for mundane, but well-paid jobs in the airline industry or technical companies.

Already the RAF is challenging conventional wisdom of military recruitment by making much better innovative use of its Reserve forces and ex-regulars to return to service, and is even looking at direct entry across rank banding for suitably qualified people. This approach highlights its forward thinking nature and ability to take innovative steps to solve their manpower challenges.

The challenges ahead are significant. The RAF is on the cusp of immense technological change as the F35 enters service along with the P8 and other platforms. It must do so with a workforce that is resilient but very stretched and very tired, and it must continue to deliver a global 24/7 reach within the margins of a very tight budget envelope. The opportunity for success is huge, but the consequences of failure are terrifying.

For Humphrey the RAF remains a Service that epitomises what it means to be in the military. Good humoured people working long hours as part of a close knit team and going beyond the ordinary to help others. They are a magnificent bunch, even if they do wear the most awful polyester uniforms at times, and their first century is a story of success, courage and overcoming the odds to make the UK and her allies safe. Long may they continue!