Redefining the Reds?

The Royal Air Force Aerobatic Team (RAFAT), more commonly known as the ‘Red Arrows’ have returned to the UK from their tour out to the Middle East. At a time when the UK defence budget is under unprecedented pressure to cut, cut, cut, is it really an appropriate use of scare cash to keep the Reds in the air? This article will aim to consider what it is that the Red Arrows do and why many see them as having so much value, even at times of pressure.

The role of the Reds is arguably to simply showcase the very best of the flying skills in the RAF. Their work requires huge levels of professionalism and dedication to ensure that they continue to provide thrilling displays of aerial acrobatics that requires airmanship of the highest calibre to deliver. Their programme is a combination of both displays in the UK, reaching out to home audiences at air shows and domestic flypasts, and a global tour which annually deploys around the world to support trade shows, air shows and other key visits.

Why Influential?

On paper it all sounds like a bit of a jolly, conjuring up images of pilots flying between glamorous destinations and staying in luxury hotels in-between bouts of throwing their aircraft around the skies and introducing themselves in the Bar as ‘Red One/Two/Three’. The reality is that not only is it incredibly hard work, but the Reds display season overseas generates enormous opportunities for UK foreign policy goals.

These opportunities occur in various ways. Firstly, despite inevitable cynicism in the UK, there are many nations overseas that place huge priority on their national air shows or defence exhibitions. These are showcase events intended to broadcast to the world a statement of intent about that country. For example many of the Middle East nations throw enormous air shows and defence exhibitions that are a bold statement of intent about their place on the world stage.

To these countries, securing the support of a prestigious air display team is a sign of support from another nation and endorsement of their show & the nation as a whole. It speaks to the importance that the nation attaches to the show and a strong message of support for the country in question. Nations will request at very senior (e.g. Ministerial or Head of State) levels the presence of air display teams to help showcase their own event and by extension, their country.

The decision to attend, or stay away, from a major show can be a tremendously powerful diplomatic tool. In an image conscious world, an announcement by HMG that the Red Arrows will not be participating in an air show due to a nation conduct sends a clear message of disapproval, arguably with wider reach and greater potency than ‘sending a gunboat’.

On the ground itself the presence of the Reds in country opens the door to a variety of influencing opportunities. When planning defence engagement, the opportunity to have a Minister or Service Chief fly into the country and offer to show senior representatives around the team offers priceless opportunities for discrete conversations and chances to lobby and influence key decision makers. During the air shows themselves, there is usually a specific slot for the team to display each day. At a busy show, the UK senior contingent will try to spend the display with other seniors, inviting them to watch it with them. This gives the perfect opportunity to engage in bilateral conversations with senior people who otherwise may not have much engagement with the UK. A twenty to thirty minute window in which to lobby, influence and push on behalf of UK foreign policy and industry.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

The presence of the Red Arrows provides the perfect backdrop – it’s often a chance to meet the team and try to build on relationships. Most importantly it is often the perfect opening for a visit to be secured – anyone who has done business in the Middle East will know the immense difficulty of securing a diary appointment with busy senior figures. Putting an opportunity to visit the team and do something different in the diary is a good way to secure this, rather than another round of office based meetings. The presence of the Reds opens doors that would otherwise be difficult to get to.

The reality of much of how foreign and defence policy gets done is that it occurs due to personal relationships built up between very senior officials and Ministers over time. These quiet meetings, are chances to chat informally and outside of the often very choreographed ‘staff talks’ or bilateral meetings that occupy much of a senior figures diary. More importantly it usually permits the chance to talk candidly, delivering messages and lobbying in a way that can’t be done in a formal conference.

This may not sound like much, but if you need to discreetly sound out a nations view on an issue, push for a particular export campaign, or seek views on something best discussed in private, not played out in full at staff talks, then this is a great way to do it.

The presence of the team also allows a lot of low level influencing to be done that can again pay real dividends in the short to medium term. This ranges from practical visits, such as getting the team and its support crew to visit schools or other locations through to air displays or fly pasts. The wider picture here is that in countries where the UK wants to support education, or help grow womens rights, sending female crew members to school to show local children what they do, is a great way of helping inspire people. This is very gentle influencing, but it does make a real difference.

The fact that the Hawk is a two seater aircraft is also very useful – it is possible to put people on the 2^nd seat during a flight. Offering individuals who the UK wants to build good relationships with the chance to fly with the Red Arrows is an easy way to help generate immense goodwill that could be returned over many decades to come, often in immensely beneficial ways for the UK. It is often easy to forget that the deep relationships the UK enjoys with some nations came about as much due to building good relationships with senior individuals as it is about policy developments.

More widely, the flypasts get huge public attention – its common when a display is announced to see thousands of people on the streets to watch it, or to get front page news. It helps reinforce to those with fond memories of the UK that it is still a power that wishes to work with their country. The media coverage provides the perfect opportunity for a photo and then quotes from Ambassadors about UK policy goals that is far more likely to be read than if you just issued a bland press release. Humphrey has worked extensively across the Middle East and knows that when the Reds are in town, HMG gets a chance to get headline coverage and more importantly the chance to message about issues of concern. The same town may have multiple RN ships in port, or Army training teams on the ground, but this gets no media interest or attention, whilst the Red Arrows flying down the corniche is almost certainly the next days front page picture story.

All of this is intangible, but it is perhaps better to think of the Red Arrows as a means of opening the door to engagement and raising the UK profile, rather than a display team in isolation. The outcome is that the Reds provide significant opportunities on behalf of the UK to lobby, influence and help support positive outcomes.

Could it be done in a different way?

Many commentators argue that the team is an anachronism that doesn’t have a place in the modern MOD – it is seen as too expensive or not appropriate at a time of austerity. It could be argued that contractors could do the job just as well as RAF pilots, or that industry could fund the team instead.

Arguably the credibility of the team stems from the fact that it comprises full time pilots who will return to operational roles when their tour is done. To nations keen to use the RAF pilot training system, the Red Arrows is a visible symbol of what that pipeline can produce. The fact that they are military adds an air of credibility when deploying too – other air forces want to work with them, or host them. Being seen as an ‘in house’ asset buys you credibility that doesn’t come about if people think you are a contractor.

The issue with privatising the Reds or sponsoring them exclusively by industry is that the brand becomes tarnished. It no longer represents ‘the best of British’, but becomes commercial. Suddenly the nature of the relationship changes – why invite a commercial team into display whose own country doesn’t want to fund them? Is it appropriate to get senior Ministers and Service Chiefs to lobby against the backdrop of a privately funded air display team?

This may sound slightly odd, but there is something in the international relations space about dealing with Governments and militaries, vice commercial organisations. The sort of company that would run the Reds is likely one that is already lobbying many host governments for contracts or business. The brand would become associated with prior failures by that company, and not as a statement of influence by HMG.

The best way to handle the industry link is to get industry present, and showcase the support they provide to the team, but let them do so in a way which puts HMG front and centre. Presentationally this helps industry show its ability to support Government (helpful for them when trying to highlight their capability in a bidding competition) and also their presence besides HMG helps tacitly show them off in a different light, and lends an air of respectability and legitimacy – after all, if you are good enough for the Red Arrows to use, then that’s a pretty positive endorsement of your product.

Look to the future

The real challenge and question facing the Reds is ‘what happens next’? Their aircraft of choice is ageing, and no decision has yet been taken on how to replace it. The Hawk T2 is probably too complicated an aircraft for use solely as an aerobatic display airframe, and given there are less of 30 than them out there, its hard to see the justification for a further order of 9-10 airframes simply for the Red Arrows.

At the same time the Hawk T1A is theoretically approaching its out of service date, although many aviation forums hint that it could be kept going for at least another decade. But, is it the right airframe to do this? When the Reds began flying the Hawk it was a cutting edge trainer, exported to many different nations, but today it is, as all airframes do, approaching the end of its natural life.

Does the UK wish to project itself as a power on the world stage using a nearly 40yr old aircraft design, or does it wish to try to project a more positive image? There are persistent rumours that some of the Batch 1 Typhoons would be ideal for the role, although whether the airframe has the ability to perform the same level of aerobatics is questionable. There is the wider, more vexed question of nationality too. The Hawk is an indisputably British aircraft. To the tabloids, MPs and ‘joe public’ they will want to see a ‘British’ aircraft to replace the existing fleet.

The Typhoon may be a heavily UK based airframe, and the future of aviation lies in multi-national, not purely national aviation projects, but this hasn’t stopped letters from MPs to the PM demanding that the next generation of aircraft is ‘British’.

This demand comes at a point when BAE Systems faces real challenges in keeping the Hawk line going. The days of air forces needing large numbers of trainer aircraft have diminished – the reduction in fast jet fleet numbers, the fact it is easier to convert pilots more quickly and earlier onto aircraft like the Typhoon and the increased capability offered by the Hawk platform means the need for large buys is gone. The RAF purchased over 250 Hawks of various types, compared to just 28 Hawk T2.

In turn this means BAE will soon run out of orders to build the Hawk, and in turn will start laying off the workforce soon. An ‘attrition’ buy would probably make sense to help stave off redundancies for a few years, although it will be hard to justify at a time when the MOD is incredibly financially stretched. Whether some form of financing deal, such as getting OGDs or industry to stump up the funds is possible may be considered, but equally the follow on question is ‘what happens next’? Its all very well bailing out BAE for a few more years, but at some point production of the Hawk will stop – the question is when to stop ordering it for the RAF.

The idea of scrapping the Reds is unlikely to happen or be sanctioned by most Prime Ministers, nor would it happily be supported by departments across Government who see the clear benefits the team offers. But there will come a point when difficult decisions need to be taken – while it is easy now, with an in service aircraft and plenty of spares, to say that the Reds will not be scrapped, this may not be as easy to say when the spares become harder to get or run out, and the airframe needs replacing.

The value of the display team is clearly understood, but there comes a point where logic and a lack of cash will triumph over nostalgia. As the RN found out to its cost, no matter how effective HMY BRITANNIA was, once you’ve discovered you can scrap sacred cows with relatively little political impact, its easier to be willing to save money and scrap them.

The crunch point is likely to come in the next few years, when tough decisions will be needed about what, if anything, replaces the current fleet and whether the UK wants to fly an aircraft that advertises ‘Brand Britain’ when it may be as equally likely to be an advert for ‘Brand Germany’ or ‘Brand Italy’. These choices are not easy to make, and it is too soon to predict what the outcome will be. Until that point though, the Red Arrows will continue to delight audiences at home, and perform an invaluable  role abroad opening doors for the UK to deliver defence engagement goals and help quietly and effectively deliver an essential part of the UKs wider global security strategy.