Steely Stuff - the saga of Type 26 production
There has been coverage in the last few days of the UK
governments confirmation that only 35% of the new Type 26 frigates steel would
be sourced from UK suppliers, with the remainder coming from overseas. Is this
necessarily a bad thing?
The problem with the modern defence industry these days is
twofold -firstly it is hard to keep everything required for a ship or kit ‘in
country’ and that you have to go overseas for parts of the supply chain.
Secondly, its hard for any government to keep giving out orders that continue to
sustain a credible industry without either very heavy subsidies, or making the
ship far more expensive.
In the case of the Type 26, the clear problem was that
despite MOD aggressively trying to persuade industry to bid and provide UK
solutions, no UK steel manufacturer was able to meet the specifications and
provide all the steel. Its hard for Government to support industry when
industry itself is unable to meet the needs of the requirement.
Much like the RFA Tide class tankers had to be built
overseas because no UK shipbuilder proposed an in country build (primarily due
to capacity issues), the reality is that the requirement for certain types of steel
is quite limited now. Industry has to make a strategic decision based on
whether it is worth retaining a capability to make this type of specific steel
or not, and balance up the costs and benefits of doing so. Clearly UK industry
has chosen not to keep up the investment required and as such was unable to
bid.
From a Government perspective, its difficult to see what
could have been done differently. The requirement for high end specific steel
was always going to be limited after the Type 45 finished construction. At best
a small number of ships over a roughly 20 year period would need them (even on
the original 13 hull Type 26 plan, it still only envisaged one ship every 18
months - two years).
The numbers are small, and the need for extra steel
limited. So we find ourselves in a position where parts of the hull
are being outsourced and built overseas – because there is no industrial
capacity to do so here, nor was there likely to have been. Does this really
matter?
Humphrey would argue that no, it does not really matter
except to political mischief makers. The harsh reality is that every Western
military (and frankly most other countries too) rely on foreign components in
their warships and other vessels. Some nations may have ships built from
locally produced steel – but those same ships may have a combat system from one
nation, a SAM from another and a gun from a third party country. In other words
it’s a fusion of kit from across the globe coming together in one platform.
If you’re going to rely on foreign derived kit in your
ships, then the sensible thing to do is work out what really really matters to
your operational effectiveness and sovereignty. Arguably this will be the
command and control systems, communications, the crypto and all the other
complex electronic bits. Then it’s the weapon systems, aviation assets and
other parts that help the ship ‘fight’.
It doesn’t really matter where the steel comes from – in many ways this
is the least relevant bit when it comes to national sovereignty.
What matters is that in a crisis, your ability to design,
build operate, support, repair and use the ships systems as intended is what counts,
not where some of the steel in the hull comes from. All navies face a similar challenge
– what matters is determining the level of sovereignty that you are willing to
trade off for capability. If you really want a home derived warship, then you’ll
end up with something out of the North Korean navy – which will be simple,
unsophisticated and unable to do much except look good in photoshopped
pictures.
We live in an interconnected world with complex supply
chains that stretch a long way. If we were to do an analysis on the many parts
of any ship, we’d find it derived from across the globe. We have to accept that
the days of a nation building purely ‘in house’ are gone forever. This means
every nation has to decide where the balance of investment lies, does it
subsidise, or does it outsource as required to get the result when it needs to?
This argument feels more about bolstering opposition MPs who
represent steelmaking constituencies than it does about actual effectiveness.
In truth many of those MPs condemning the Government today, were themselves in
Government when decisions were taken many years ago to slip, delay and defer or
cancel Type 45 hulls 7&8 and further delay the ordering of Type 26. What we
are seeing now is chickens coming home to roost from many years ago, which in
turn forced industry to choose where to invest.
Sadly, its likely that no matter how this ends, much as HMS
QUEEN ELIZABETH is constantly being mocked as a carrier with no planes, the
Type 26 will continue to be mocked as a Swedish steel ship, allowing the
Twitterati to continue to feel bad about themselves and indulge in their
favourite habit of running down the RN, not focusing on the fact that every
navy faces similar choices and would doubtless make the same decision if
needed.
Indeed. Mischief-making in the extreme. Aside from the minor fact that the total steel content in an 8 ship T26 programme would be around 30000 te set against UK steel capacity of 12M te/pa (~0.25% of UK output). That would also be spread over ten to twelve years, so in fact would be more like 0.025% of annual output.
ReplyDeleteBut you won't find Kinnochio junior saying that....