New MOD Ministers -initial thoughts on the reshuffle

So the much anticipated parliamentary reshuffle has gone through, and many MPs are probably currently wondering how they ended up in their new posts, and wondering how much extra they can claim off the taxpayer as a result.

 

It was somewhat surprising to see Defence getting new Ministers – for a department that so recently lost its Secretary of State, it came as genuine surprise to see MINAF (Nick Harvey) resign from the Government, and Gerald Howarth fired. Of the six ministers in the MOD, right now only three have more than one years experience in the department. At the moment, the current Ministerial line up appears to be as follows:

Secretary of State for Defence – Phillip Hammond MP

 

Minister for Armed Forces – Andrew Robathan MP

 

Minister International Security-  Currently vacant (was Gerald Howarth MP)

 

Minister Defence Personnel – Currently vacant (was Andrew Robathan MP)

 

Minister Defence Equipment – EDIT (05/09) - Currently Vacant (was Gerald Luff MP)

 

Under Secretary of State – Lord Astor

 

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State – Andrew Dunne MP (role to be confirmed)

Parliamentary Under Secretary of State - Andrew Murrison MP (role to be confirmed)

 

If the reshuffle is complete, then it looks as if at least one Ministerial position has been lost, and its not yet clear whether the appointment of Andrew Dunne is in addition to Lord Astor, or as a replacement for him.
 

The staff at the MOD (both civilian and military) have a very close relationship to their Ministers, probably far closer than any other department. There is often a genuine sense of affection for the Minister people deal with (regardless of party), and people tend to take real pride in having a sense of knowing who their Minister is, and often having work sent in to their offices. Accordingly reshuffles have a tendency to get the gossip mill working overtime as people try to work out what may come next and what the implications are.

 

The loss of Gerald Howarth does not come as a surprise – an individual who seemed to be to the far right of the party, he was an honourable man who some would whisper seemed more comfortable being a backbencher and speaking his mind than representing the Government and speaking formally. His departure will not really hurt the department and will free him up to perhaps speak more freely on many of his bête noires.  

The really interesting move is the loss of Nick Harvey as MINAF. This post was a particularly interesting one, as it was in essence the deputy to SofS, and the individual who most frequently would be seen as the No2 Minister within  the department. For the Lib Dems to walk away from it means losing control over a particularly key Ministerial post.

In practical terms this move means the MOD as a political department is now fully under Conservative control (although this could change if a low ranking Minister is appointed tomorrow). Having delivered the SDSR, and preparing for the withdrawal from Afghanistan, one could argue that Defence now should have a relatively quiet two- three years ahead of it, with no significant policy shifts due, or major changes to the way the department does business expected. The procurement budget is balanced, and there seems to be no intent on holding any further defence reviews before the next election.

What then could have precipitated such a move? The authors very personal view is that this could be linked to the issue of Trident and Lib Dem posturing ahead of the next election. We know that a review is underway in the Cabinet Office into the Trident system and the wider provision of the deterrent. This review was conducted largely at Lib Dem behest, potentially to try and provide wider options for the really tough decisions on what to do over the replacement of the deterrent.

One conspiracy theory could be that the review may be about to conclude that it is not possible to downgrade the deterrent, nor make widespread changes. Such a move would sit uncomfortably with many party members, and Nick Harvey may have felt unable to support the results of the review.

By stepping away from the MOD, there is now time to enable the conservative party to push forward on their commitment to replacing the deterrent. The Lib Dems can step back and be far less involved in the day to day process, and perhaps open up wider opposition to its replacement. Its much easier to be opposed to something when you don’t have a Minister in the department responsible for implementing the policy. In a deeply hypothetical outlook, then come the 2015 election, it may then be politically far easier for the Lib Dems to align themselves with Labour, who themselves appear to be less than committed to the deterrent at present.

This resignation may well be for the wider sake of party politics, but it does leave a hole in the MOD. Getting new Ministers in takes time – the new arrivals today will take six months to a year to be fully comfortable with their portfolio. It will not be easy to make tough decisions on defence matters when half the Ministerial team are still brand new to their posts.

Its unlikely we’ll see any short term implications from these changes, but its worth bearing in mind the relative inexperience at the top of the department for the next few months, and the likely delays that this may cause as Ministers settle into their portfolios and bring themselves up to speed. Hopefully though there will be no longer term implications for the MOD.


EDIT - 05 Sep
Since posting last night, it has emerged that Minister for Defence Procurement (Peter Luff) has also gone, and that the Department has lost 50% of its Ministers overnight. It remains to be seen how the deck will be shuffled to assign Ministers to roles. It is slightly depressing though that the MOD is once again seeing significant role changes - at present it seems to have lost every Minister appointed to his original role, with the exception of Lord Astor since 2010.

EDIT - 05 Sep
Andrew Murrison MP has been confirmed as a Minister now. He is an ex Naval Officer, who is still a serving RNR Officer who served in Iraq. Is this the first time the MOD has had a serving RNR officer as a Minister since the war?