tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post8336041938001145754..comments2024-03-20T12:03:26.126+00:00Comments on Thin Pinstriped Line: Bagpipes, Bayonets, Bluster and Bugger all else? The fallacies of the SNPs current defence policy.Sir Humphreyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-21620205671958369912012-07-06T23:58:08.195+01:002012-07-06T23:58:08.195+01:00I found this discussion to be very curious.
I s...I found this discussion to be very curious. <br /><br />I support everything that's said about operating costs - equipment support and personnel. It's expensive, and an independent Scotland will have to budget for that. <br /><br />What was more curious is the wide range of views about equipment and capital assets. There seems to be an assumption that solely on the basis of a referendum in Scotland the MoD will enagage in a negotiation about the capaital value of the defence portfolio of assets and how a share will be transferred to Scotland. I don't buy this at all. This approach seems to trample on the rights of all the English people who have paid for the majority of these assets. No doubt clever people will quickly reach for the analogues in divorce lawin addressing this point. I'm no expert in this subject, but as I understand it unless there is a mutual desire to part ways the burden of proof for grounds of divorce is quite severe. May I ask what the SNP's grounds for divorce are? It will be hard to prove mutual consent for a divorce when only a twelfth of the people in the relationship are asked.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15369255860533559589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-54608535722099063702012-06-27T11:04:31.080+01:002012-06-27T11:04:31.080+01:00Given that there are at least two affordable pract...Given that there are at least two affordable practical models that the SNP might take on, you have to wonder why they have n't adopted either - there again, UK defence planning has been absolutley deadful since the Haldane reforms, so perhaps it's not so surprising.<br />Division of assets is about very much more than the MOD, however the reailty is that the MOD has very little that would really be suitiable to Scottish needs and very little that the 'former UK' government would want to lose. There is no reason why Scotland should not have a viable defence structure in a successful economy, but you could say the same of the UK as a whole. Just because our governments have been shockingly incompetent for generations does not mean that we necessarily have to have daft policies in the future, but we probably will....<br /> The UK could be a much more successful insitution than it is at present, but Conservative and Labour governments(with help from the Glib-Dumbs)will always make a mess of things as they are so committed to looking after their buddies....no surprises there. Scotland could be a very successful independent country, but why shouild we assume that Salmond, Sturgeon and Swinney would be any less stupid than Cameron, Clegg and Miliband.//OK, Salmond etc. do understand business and the economy, but do they really understand anything else?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-85538485096843381712012-06-07T11:19:45.094+01:002012-06-07T11:19:45.094+01:00Easy to crticise Sir H as being establuishment, th...Easy to crticise Sir H as being establuishment, the problem is he is simply articulating real issues<br /><br />Ones that the SNP prefer to ignore<br /><br />Like the realities of disentangling financial institutions, public sector administration, monetary policy, national debt, pension liabilties etc<br /><br />Once voters realise this I doubt that public support for any form of true independence will ebb away<br /><br />Of course they may want their cake and eat it... ie Scotland calls itself independent but actually repmains dependent on the remainder of the UKstarfishnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-47325582467129633732012-05-27T17:00:44.357+01:002012-05-27T17:00:44.357+01:00And good luck Scotland. I'm Australian and mar...And good luck Scotland. I'm Australian and married to a Scots girl and have a wonderful family in my in laws here who are proud of their Scots heritage. Thier background is the mines, steel mills and the shipyards, very little of any are left from the "old days". You are very entitled to leave the union but from talking to them the fear is Scotland will be worse off breaking with the union than staying with it. All the talk of whether Scotland is up to the task of managing a well equipped SDF or just a policing and peace keeper force with a few contracted OPVs , helecopters and coastal MPAs and a grouping of squaddies. Do you think that's going to sustain your remaining local industry, keep the workforce off welfare? A lot of demobbed scots soldiers with no jobs or prospects. Your going to get another mass exodus of scots heading off to find something better. The UK might see better days again, if not glory days, but can you say the same, honestly about Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, England as seperate states?.....one persons SNP nationalistic rhetoric aside? I haven't seen informed educated decision making by voters in any democracy in my 44 years...it all comes down to a popularity contest and people being told what they want to hear.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-57334373190740271642012-04-03T18:15:16.100+01:002012-04-03T18:15:16.100+01:00I agree that your position is hardly apolitical an...I agree that your position is hardly apolitical and your comments highly Establishment-centric, if such a word exists (and if it doesn't it should). However, leaving to one side what might some deem a mildly patronising tone throughout for the moment,many of the questions posed are quite apposite. All I can say is that those who strive for an independent Scotland are well aware of them and are working hard on potential solutions, both within the Scottish Government and outwith it. What Scotland will end up with, I'm pretty sure, will not be a miniature of what the UK has at present, but much more modest armed forces with regional rather than global aspirations and budget and equipment to match. Easier said than done, I hear you say, and quite right too. But it can, and will, be done if Scotland does choose sovereignty, of that I am sure.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-15031738464736012962012-04-03T12:10:36.187+01:002012-04-03T12:10:36.187+01:00You say in your profile "The author takes no ...You say in your profile "The author takes no political position" That is patently untrue - your entire text and arguments are political, coming from a diehard Establishment unionist.<br /><br />When Scotland votes to leave the Union - as it will - it will do so on the basis of a fully-informed Scottish electorate at the referendum ballot box. <br /><br />Putting it bluntly, our defence is our business, will be our business, and we will negotiate the terms and manner of our exit amicably and professionally with the UK Government.<br /><br />What the men in pinstripes in the rump of the UK must then address is what the hell they're going to do with their nuclear submarines, WMDs and the so-called 'independent' nuclear deterrent.<br /><br />And that's the nub of the blind panic that faces the military/industrial complex, with its venal and incompetent MOD and revolving-door-to-industry civil servants and politicians - the people who have betrayed the brave frontline serviemen and women for generations.<br /><br />Bye,bye UK - we will still be a friend to the real people of England, Wales and Nothern Ireland.moriduraalt.blogspot.comhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17002920496823680378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-73149225098773925542012-03-08T19:25:33.647+00:002012-03-08T19:25:33.647+00:00If Scotland leave the United Kingdom, they are not...If Scotland leave the United Kingdom, they are not entitled to any items of equipment. No one asked them to leave quite the opposite in fact.JS59noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-35762405419209608422012-02-20T07:49:07.594+00:002012-02-20T07:49:07.594+00:00Setting up the SDF could hardly be as difficult as...Setting up the SDF could hardly be as difficult as implied by some. Scottish MOD will simply negotiate with its UK counterpart concerning splitting of equipment along the lines of the Czechoslovakian divorce in 1993. Just put a price tag on everything and sum it up, then let Scotland pick what it wants for its 1/8th. <br /><br />The Daring class, Trident or aircraft carriers would serve no purpose in a Scottish context so there's no risk that they would take those. Neither can I see how they could choose to operate the incredibly expensive Eurofighter when the F-16 and Gripen would be available on favourable terms and with a fraction of the running cost. If they choose to keep the combat aviation capability that is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-44182280139217715702012-01-31T14:01:41.570+00:002012-01-31T14:01:41.570+00:00To be honest I don't think that the SNP have t...To be honest I don't think that the SNP have thought the defence issue through. They are more interested in other areas than something 'nasty' like defence.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-42247001922991192552012-01-25T15:23:49.806+00:002012-01-25T15:23:49.806+00:00I'm surprised this is seen as such a hassle.
...I'm surprised this is seen as such a hassle.<br /><br />Scotland would be entitled to 1/8th of the assets, but theres not reason England and Scotland couldnt make a mutualy agreeable compromise.<br />It would receive 20 eurofighters and 50 Tanks.<br />But it might decide it wants 16 Eurofighters, or 24, and if the England is agreeable, could take more or less tanks in response.<br /><br />As it is, they'd probably just demand their share of the assets in cash or sell anything they didnt want.<br />One wonders how many buyers there will be for 140 Warriors, or 75% of a Daring, but thats not really our problem.<br /><br />The training colleges will be an interesting issue, but I cant imagine its impossible to resolve.<br />For basic training, well, everyone who joins Scotland will have been through it, cant be that hard to replicate.<br />For "war" studies, just rope in any officers who jumped North and stick them in a building.<br />For technical training, do what we do, get whoever sells the kit to provide it.TrTnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-87779009488769386442012-01-23T16:49:29.747+00:002012-01-23T16:49:29.747+00:00Googling PfP no longer turns up anything when I...<em>Googling PfP no longer turns up anything when I'm sure that was explicitly mentioned before</em><br /><br />Well, they want to leave NATO, so they can hardly join the "future NATO members club"..Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17153530634675543954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-83394955082250682032012-01-23T08:07:03.075+00:002012-01-23T08:07:03.075+00:00See this article, pro-independence but argue the l...See this article, pro-independence but argue the logic, real politic and sense. http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/4151-in-defence-of-the-scottish-realm<br />Particularly the financial issue which seems so worrying in humphreys view. Fact is, come the day, if it comes there will be much horsetrading and yes of course it will all take time and there will still be strong links to whatever the legacy military in England/Wales and N Irlend calls itself.There will be much gnashing of teeth but it is do-able and could provide an opportunity for genuine Defence review by all parties.Dave Rnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-22092421839985526812012-01-23T02:13:50.151+00:002012-01-23T02:13:50.151+00:00Again those are all reasonable points, but the ans...Again those are all reasonable points, but the answers would have to wait until the political circumstances allowed for serious cross-party, cross-border discussions. <br /><br />But even if we can't expect a public debate among the players - Labour's finest contribution to date has been to ask how many aircraft carriers an independent Scotland would have - some of the punditry have started to make more serious contributions. We had a 5 minute interview with Lt Col Stewart Crawford on BBC Radio Scotland's breakfast news the other day which at covered ideas like risk/threat assessments and the interviewer asked some surprisingly good questions. That's a start anyway, and a step up from aircraft carriers and arm-waving. The "quality" press - the Herald and the Scotsman - have some decent writers on military matters: Crawford and Col Clive Fairweather in the Scotsman and historian Trevor Royle in the Herald. So things could be much worse.<br /><br />The cross-border aspect concerns me most. If the vote is yes, the MoD can be sure that within a couple of years the defence budget will be cut by coming on for 10% in cash terms. Unless the SNP leadership can kick the idea of splitting up UK defence assets soon, they'll find that that they are pushing against an open door. The MoD negotiating team will be only too happy to cooperate. Oops.<br /><br />Thanks again for posting this. I thought I'd formed fairly solid views on this subject but you've convinced me I need to think a lot harder about it.Angus McLellanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14238976801715524150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-6808478345726532732012-01-22T22:15:44.512+00:002012-01-22T22:15:44.512+00:00Interesting comments - I was involved in the Merli...Interesting comments - I was involved in the Merlin purchase from one angle, so am interested to see Powderfingers comments. My memory of that particular issue wasnt that it was an issue with us being nice to the Danes, but more about ensuring that all the airframes (plus the extant fleet) received various additional kit that was being purchased. There was a reason why it took a while, as those cabs were so heavily modified. But I'm going back a few years now. <br /><br />I suspect the future laydown will be OPV based, but you still come back to more fundamental issues - who will train them, where will the staff come from, what are the plans for keeping a balanced manpower structure etc. Its all very well having nice toys, but if you don't have the people, nor the credible means of training, employing and supporting them, then how do those vessels go to sea regularly?<br /><br />That is the thrust of this argument - we can play with kit porn for as much as we like, but we need to think long and hard about personnel matters, or any future SDF is going to really struggle.Sir Humphreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-37294665995818356262012-01-22T21:51:47.489+00:002012-01-22T21:51:47.489+00:00The Danish navy and air force are essentially regu...The Danish navy and air force are essentially regular forces. Only the army has a significant proportion of conscript and short-contract personnel.<br /><br />The Merlin story has another interesting by-way. The Danes sold their old Sea Kings to Sikorsky on remarkably good terms (for Denmark). Can the MoD claim any successes like this http://www.casr.ca/doc-news-danish-sea-kings.htm ?Angus McLellanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14238976801715524150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-50126680692771484702012-01-22T18:21:45.298+00:002012-01-22T18:21:45.298+00:00Model themselves on Denmark, which has roughly the...Model themselves on Denmark, which has roughly the same population. That is, conscription alongside regular forces.<br /><br />If it did happen, nuclear and protection of the western approaches would be the big issues. Not that the current Government bothers with the latter, having got rid of most Maritime Patrol activities. <br /><br />Mention of Denmark is interesting. When we bought some newly built Merlins from Denmark a few years ago, Denmark insisted WE bought THEIR replacements and delivered them to a rigid timescale. So rigid, in fact, that we delivered their replacements to them BEFORE the originals could be converted for our own use! So, Denmark are doing something right and perhaps MoD as a whole could learn a thing or two.powderfingerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01248185727606272650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-29214332012746269192012-01-22T13:03:49.723+00:002012-01-22T13:03:49.723+00:00el-sid +1, and in a post that is all about small b...el-sid +1, and in a post that is all about small but important details I am disappointed that you mention shipbuilding at Clydebank, a location that hasn't built a ship since 1972. Have you considered a career in journalism?Anixtunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-37301099568866419332012-01-21T18:55:56.718+00:002012-01-21T18:55:56.718+00:00The idea of a division of UK military equipment is...The idea of a division of UK military equipment is hardly an attractive one even before considering that a twelfth of Navy, Air Force and Army equipment would produce a bizarre collection of odds and ends. Time for this idea to be taken out and shot I think.<br /><br />My preference would be start with a clean sheet of paper and do a risk and cost assessment. But before that could begin we'd need to know whether Rockall was Scottish, how the UK Maritime SAR responsibilities were to be divided or shared, whether we planned to join NATO or the PfP, whether we'd be in the EU or EFTA or something else, and so on.<br /><br />However it is approached, defence policy couldn't be a matter for the SNP alone. Labour, and to a lesser degree the Lib Dems and Tories, need to weight in too to ensure that the broad outlines of defence policy have consensus support. That would mean that nothing much would happen before a referendum - yet another reason why divvying up UK defence assets is not a credible approach - and even afterwards defence would be unlikely to top the list of priorities for discussion.<br /><br />But as El Sid said, minimal EEZ patrol and SAR requirements can be largely contracted out. And then the politicians and pundits could hammer out the details. <br /><br />Since there's no disputing that OPVs would be needed - not unless Labour really do want that aircraft carrier - they could be ordered at an early date. The Icelandic UT-512L Thor and its cousins and lookalikes show roughly what is needed: a ship that in its basic form combines EEZ patrol, SAR, ETV and pollution control duties and has a flexible working deck so that missions are limited only by funding, training and what can be fitted into one or more 20 foot containers. The really good news is that BAE wouldn't be the only potential domestic supplier and perhaps not even the favoured one when their record is compared with Fergusons. <br /><br />Apart from some sort of incident response capability - which could perfectly well be police-based as in France and many other countries - there's little else which would need to be dealt with urgently. If it takes years to build up a navy and an army and an air force, that's fine. All the more time to debate defence issues sensibly. <br /><br />I entirely agree that beginning with grand plans to stand up forces with a broad spectrum of capabilities based on UK cast-offs only to cut back hard few years later would be a very expensive mistake. But it isn't hard to avoid. Especially not when that lovely Mr Hammond - who has already done much to ensure that the UK retains responsibility for SAR between 15 and 30 degrees west, a significant cost saving for Scotland's defence forces - is going the extra mile by doing all he can to prevent us from being able to make that mistake.Angus McLellanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14238976801715524150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-24570830224224037942012-01-21T16:04:19.545+00:002012-01-21T16:04:19.545+00:00Hi El-Sid,
I agree its hopefully overegging the ma...Hi El-Sid,<br />I agree its hopefully overegging the matter, but if the SNP want to take on 1/8th of the UK forces, then they will be having to take on some fairly high end capability kit. <br />OPVs are nice and cheap, but arguably, given the UK doesnt own the current OPVs (they are leased), so they may not be in our gift to pass to the SDF. <br />I strongly suspect that the future SDF would require a very large bill to downsize capabilities and bring the right kit into service. Either that, or they are going to have a shock when they find out just how expensive some of this kit is to operate...Sir Humphreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-50175933720051540012012-01-21T14:15:18.521+00:002012-01-21T14:15:18.521+00:00You're maybe overthinking this a bit. From wha...You're maybe overthinking this a bit. From what I understand, the SNP plan a pretty basic self-defence force + fisheries/oil protection + Partnership for Peace. No more than Ireland, probably less.<br /><br />However a whole lot of stuff has disappeared from their website - for instance, Googling PfP no longer turns up anything when I'm sure that was explicitly mentioned before. One suspects that they're talking big just to reassure the people near bases, but the reality will be much less. To be honest they barely need a naval base or airbase - they could just live at civvy bases as the FP planes do now. The only reason to keep the big bases would be as assets to negotiate with, to try and get some lease income.<br /><br />It needs a whole lot fewer REME etc to keep a few FPVs going - the FP planes are already on a civvy contract. You can get some indication of how willing Edinburgh is to pay for this kind of stuff by the saga of the FPV replacement - first it was going to be a long-range Jura III, then an inshore vessel, now it seems to be in the long grass. The idea that they're going to get anything as fighty as say a Skjold seems improbable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com