tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post5757611322139167471..comments2024-03-20T12:03:26.126+00:00Comments on Thin Pinstriped Line: Repositioning the Legions - the USN in 2020Sir Humphreyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-5044463294766618012017-10-30T11:25:01.215+00:002017-10-30T11:25:01.215+00:00Just wish to say your article is as amazing. The c...Just wish to say your article is as amazing. The clarity on your submit is just great and that i could assume you are a professional on this subject. Well together with your permission allow me to snatch your feed to stay up to date with drawing close post. Thank you 1,000,000 and please carry on the gratifying work. <br />Model Plafon Ruang Tamu Kecil 2018http://www.modelrumahidaman.com/contoh-desain-plafon-rumah-minimalis/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-18932369294313471832015-08-08T12:29:08.151+01:002015-08-08T12:29:08.151+01:00Right here is the perfect website for everyone who...Right here is the perfect website for everyone who wants to understand this topic. You understand a whole lot its almost tough to argue with you (not that I personally will need to…HaHa). You certainly put a new spin on a subject that has been discussed for decades. Great stuff, just wonderful<br />Design Ruang Tamu Kecil Minimalishttp://www.rumahinterior.co.id/5/desain-ruang-tamu-kecil-minimalis/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-31922351703189576302015-03-03T03:49:37.334+00:002015-03-03T03:49:37.334+00:00Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel...Thanks for taking the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love learning more on this topic.<br />Desain Kamar Mandi Mungil Minimalishttp://www.modelrumahminimalisr.com/56/desain-kamar-mandi-mungil-minimalis/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-86143356328815735112012-06-13T18:53:35.779+01:002012-06-13T18:53:35.779+01:00"... as the US becomes a one ocean power ...&..."... as the US becomes a one ocean power ..."<br /><br />When has the US said that is going to happen? The balance of their fleet will move to the Pacific, but the residual left in the Atlantic will still be larger than any other power and much bigger than the only feasible enemy.<br /><br />As an aside, can I say that I am looking forward to your article on the RN. Hopefully you'll find time to write it soon. I'd also be very interested if you could find time to expand your views on the future of NATO.HurstLlamahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01086351645473769872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-56609190570589097652012-06-12T23:14:16.467+01:002012-06-12T23:14:16.467+01:00Red Rover - I think the role of DG will be clarifi...Red Rover - I think the role of DG will be clarified when the US renews the lease - most likely within the next 2-3 years. The useage of the island facilities under the new lease will give a better idea of how the US sees the importance of the Indian Ocean as a strategic location. <br />Currently the facilities there are fairly substantial (I went there some years ago and was amazed at how much exists), but its not yet clear whether the US will draw down, or retain its extant levels of support.<br />The Special Relationship will survive, if only because it is founded on wider principles than just land access on DG. It will evolve to meet the changing strategic priorities - as the US becomes a one ocean power, it will inevitably see a change to the way it deals with the UK and other powers too...Sir Humphreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-53583574491250517702012-06-09T04:50:26.942+01:002012-06-09T04:50:26.942+01:00the shift east is clear, yet one wonders whether i...the shift east is clear, yet one wonders whether indian ocean is being overlooked. any thoughts, sir humphrey, on the special relationship and Diego Garcia?red rovernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-62978835202712183682012-06-08T12:01:10.434+01:002012-06-08T12:01:10.434+01:00Annon,
This is slowly happening, in trade and ene...Annon,<br /><br />This is slowly happening, in trade and energy deals...a few years ago the first major exercise between the two militaries occured.<br />However, if you look at the positioning of the new military assets Russia has brought, most of the capable ones are in the far East, russia has several defence agreements with Kazakstan and Mongolia and the other boarder nations to use their airspace and certain bases, so there is still misstrust between the two.mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-86806273187846961232012-06-07T09:14:33.181+01:002012-06-07T09:14:33.181+01:00Hurst - I think its fair to say that I utterly dis...Hurst - I think its fair to say that I utterly disagree with you on almost all your points. You seem to focus on doing down the RN, while ignoring the massive problems affecting both French and Spanish fleets, and also the challenges affecting the USN. <br />I will make a point of doing an article on the RN soon (once time permits) and try to explain that while things are challenging, they certainly are not anywhere near as bad as they seem.Sir Humphreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-51014660751818687402012-06-07T00:44:37.824+01:002012-06-07T00:44:37.824+01:00Unfortunately, you are right. The loss of critical...Unfortunately, you are right. The loss of critical mass over the last two decades is a real game changer. We have to a large extent traded numbers for a very limited carrier strike capability and would struggle to conduct any sustained unilateral action against determined opposition.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-30101888680598924832012-06-07T00:15:50.949+01:002012-06-07T00:15:50.949+01:00"second only to the USN in terms of reach, po..."second only to the USN in terms of reach, potential and capability."<br /><br />The RN has some really good kit and really good crews, it also has a tradition of "working away from home" and senior officers who are comfortable with that. However it has two massive weaknesses. It is too small and it has no air arm.<br /><br />Leave aside the submarine service, what we have in the RN, in war-fighting terms, is a coastal defence force with the ability to take on a third rate Navy, or to play in the bigs by contributing ships to USN or a French (or, possibly, Spanish) task force.<br /><br />Furthermore, I would suggest that the RN is now so small and so overstretched that a power such as Iran could, with a little imagination and training, bring UK trade to its knees. <br /><br />So being second to the USN in the Atlantic is nice, but don't mean much.HurstLlamahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01086351645473769872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-28711139271196352142012-06-06T10:40:04.628+01:002012-06-06T10:40:04.628+01:00One potential alignment of interest which could we...One potential alignment of interest which could well effect any 'european re-balance', would be a strategic link-up between China and Russia.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-72151513213008591802012-06-05T13:03:24.807+01:002012-06-05T13:03:24.807+01:00The RN is much to busy with ongoing operations to ...The RN is much to busy with ongoing operations to send ships to a review, which, while it would be nice, is not all that important compared to our international comittmments. If it had been held in similar weather to Sunday then few people would have actually seen it.<br /> As has been said elswhere this was also technically a private event and not a State Affair.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-49169076086786116332012-06-05T12:21:22.278+01:002012-06-05T12:21:22.278+01:00Thanks for your comment.
In terms of CVNs, the US...Thanks for your comment. <br />In terms of CVNs, the USN drops to 10 CVNs very soon when Enterprise goes, and I genuinely doubt that we will see 11 again. Budget cuts means it is unlikely to see the force grow. <br />My figures on the force levels are drawn on the projected decomissioning dates due over the next few years. At present, the USN is running 62 Arleigh Burkes, 22 CG47s and about 18 very old FFG7s.<br />The proposed decomissioning plans seem to have four CGs going within the next couple of years. Additionally, it is highly likely that the USN will lose further FFG7s in preference to higher end escorts - they have no missile system now, and are essentially very old cold war era gun frigates, that are considered in poor materiel condition.<br />The CG47s drop to 18 very soon, and they will also drop further over the next couple of years -the hulls are ageing rapidly and the replacement is ever further delayed. <br />I'm afraid there is no chance at all of LCS being deployed in a 50 strong group by 2020, the build programme is still delayed, and I can only see this slipping further with budgetary pressures. At best we may see a small number slowly entering service. <br />The big challenge facing the USN is the growing age of the CG47 fleet, the fact that the early Block 1 Burkes are approaching their 25th birthday, and that the LCS and Zumwalt classes seeem to be taking ever longer to deliver. Add this to the reality that at least a further $500Bn worth of cuts seems likely over the next few years, and you realise that there is a major crisis in US shipbuilding approaching. too many ships, too little money and too many deployments will make it very difficult for the USN in about 15 years time.<br />The point of the article was not that CVF offers a credible alternative to CVN, but that the presence of two decent sized decks, capable of running a USMC detachment, or an enhanced RN detachment may be seen as a useful thing. Just because a CVF isnt a CVN doesnt mean that it won't have a similar political impact if deployed. <br />While forward deployment exists, it is hard to see Congress voting to retain overseas naval bases while simaltaneously voting for defence cuts in their own districts. My view is that the overseas naval stations will go, not because the USN wants to lose them, but because domestic political pressures means they have no choice in this. <br />While Japan and Korea are both hugely potent navies, they remain fundamentally coastal forces in political nature - good ships, good crews, but the will to use them in a wider manner is still not fully there. The signs of a growing capability are there, as is the intent of Korea to take on a more prominent role, but it will probably take some time to achieve this.<br />As for LRMPA, I agree its loss is annoying, but equally the RN continues to operate a very broad spectrum of capabilities, second only to the USN in terms of reach, potential and capability.Sir Humphreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-27901466976421480242012-06-05T11:37:16.052+01:002012-06-05T11:37:16.052+01:00This article makes 2 major mistakes. Firstly it o...This article makes 2 major mistakes. Firstly it overstates the decline in the USN, which was largely protected in recent US defence cuts, keeping all 11 CVBGs, for example. By my reconing, USN will still have almost 90 high end DDG/CG by 2020 (Burkes/Ticos/Zumwalts) and 50 or so SSN and a similar number of LCS. Secondly, I seriously doubt anyone in DC would take comfort in an RN POW will a dozen F35B and no AEW replacing a USN CVN. <br /><br />Other points - by increasing forward basing (LCS in Singapore and Bahrain, Burkes in Cadiz), USN can keep its global presence at similar levels with slightly fewer ships. USN's biggest partner in the Western Pacific is Japan, not Australia. South Korea also of course very important. Neither mentioned in this article. Finally, the UK is unlikely to be taken seriously as a major maritime power by anyone whilst in lacks a high end LRMPA.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-82806402755370269282012-06-05T09:12:36.936+01:002012-06-05T09:12:36.936+01:00Unless of course, when it becomes clear how deeply...Unless of course, when it becomes clear how deeply the army ****ed up in Iraq and Afghanistan, they lose their funding priority.<br /><br />Even at only 2% of GDP, we could still have a ferocious naval capability.<br />That would be roughly 40% of the USN budget.<br /><br />They manage to operate quite a bit, a third of that would make us the second most capable navy by a long long way.TrThttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07316335177828136131noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-90931323744657387702012-06-05T01:47:49.482+01:002012-06-05T01:47:49.482+01:00HurstLlama is probably right. The Type 23s are unl...HurstLlama is probably right. The Type 23s are unlikely to be replaced on a 1:1 basis and the escort fleet will therefore fall further to ~16 ships. The replacement for the MCMVs, OPVs and hydrographic vessels may well be delayed and it is also unlikely that there will be any money for the replacement of HMS Ocean or RFA Argus. Sorry to be a pessimist, but I think that things are going to get worse rather than better. There is thus little prospect of the RN being able to fill the void left by the USN.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-65573313404065460352012-06-04T20:30:51.474+01:002012-06-04T20:30:51.474+01:00"but simultaneously terrifying to consider.&q..."but simultaneously terrifying to consider."<br /><br />I dont think 'terrifying' is a good word to use, it certainly wont mean the UK is suddenly exposed to all and sundry.<br /><br />Europe will still play host to US Forces, but in smaller numbers... the UK still has 2 USAFE bases, they'll still have a Medd Fleet, and our expeditionary capability along with niche air force, army and navy assets means we'll still have a role to play. <br />As was once quipped by Humphrey in another post, in the east Austrailia will find itself as cosey as the UK in the 'west' is.<br /><br />Obviously, if Europe actually banded together to take up the 'slack', we'd provide a formidable force. But one that doesnt need to head off to fight a Dragon, seriously; what is it with peoples obsession with us teaming up if the brown stuff hit the fan over there? Other than offering support to Austrailia and N.Z (ANZAC) forces, there are pleanty of high end partners the US can choose from, namely Singapore. But its our niche skills and assets they'll still hotly want.mikenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-53398513012743980842012-06-04T19:14:03.640+01:002012-06-04T19:14:03.640+01:00Ianeon - I'm afraid that you have been complet...Ianeon - I'm afraid that you have been completely mislead on this one. Sounds like scuttlebut rather than any meaningful plan. In fact there was never, as far as I am aware, any plan to do a fleet review.Sir Humphreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-78392506245299723002012-06-04T18:53:04.513+01:002012-06-04T18:53:04.513+01:00I can see the armed forces of Europe, the defence ...I can see the armed forces of Europe, the defence industry and assorted hangers on salivating at the thought of a disengagement from the US because they assume that Europe will have to increase defence spending to compensate.<br /><br />But this assumes that we actualy need to replace the USN on a like for like basis. NATO was the worlds most successful defence alliance that gauranteed the safety of millions but there exists no realistic threat to the European nations of NATO so can you blame them for reducing defence spending since the end of the Cold War, seems like prudence to me.<br /><br />Would a more defensive and localised European defence forces be such a bad thing, one might argue that recent expeditionary operations have been of little strategic value so if a reduced spend means a change in strategy, again, is this such a bad thing.Think Defencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14674093099627997373noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-69682799194525865692012-06-04T12:25:33.064+01:002012-06-04T12:25:33.064+01:00Alas, Sir Humphrey, the "wider budget" w...Alas, Sir Humphrey, the "wider budget" will not remain stable and in 2015 it is likely that the public finances will be in an even bigger mess than they are now. So HMG will have to decide if it wants to maintain defence spending and cut back elsewhere. Additionally, the 2015 defence review will probably be conducted under a Labour government and, quite possibly, the most left-wing one yet. Defence will be cut again and the RN will take more than its fair share, again.HurstLlamahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01086351645473769872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-38404262084828673502012-06-04T00:13:07.093+01:002012-06-04T00:13:07.093+01:00About a quarter of the Royal Navy were present the...About a quarter of the Royal Navy were present then.<br /><br /> Marvellous.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-36571781173857840712012-06-03T22:27:25.427+01:002012-06-03T22:27:25.427+01:00Certainly from what I saw today the Grey Funnel Li...Certainly from what I saw today the Grey Funnel Line was very much in attendance. Not only were the 6 RIBS and HMS Hurworth there but the escort also included two P2000s. I also spotted a lot of RN personnel on other boats. As Sir H notes we would also have had an RN flypast had the weather not been so poor.<br /><br />The fact that just about every shot of Spirit of Chartwell once she had berthed had HMS President in the background should also be remembered. The barge itself also had RN personnel on it.<br /><br /> A lot of people watching the event both there and on TV would have seen the presence of the RN.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-73890104290278968762012-06-03T18:29:24.973+01:002012-06-03T18:29:24.973+01:00Ianeon - I'm sorry, but your comment is utter ...Ianeon - I'm sorry, but your comment is utter rubbish. <br />The RN was heavily involved in the pageant today, providing the escort to the Spirit of Chartwell, in the form of 6 RIBS (some of which contained RAN, RCN and RNZN personnel too). It also provided a Royal Guard, and HMS HURWORTH and had the weather not defeated us, then a flypast as well. <br />The reason no larger grey hulls were involved was simple. Firstly, this was a private and not a state event, so the berths that could take an RN warship of Frigate size were taken several years ago. There was nowhere the RN could have gone except the Royal Docks in Excel, which would have been pointless.<br />Secondly, the size of RN vessels means anything T45 or above can't get up beyond Greenwich, as no berths exist that can handle them. A T23 could have got alongside Belfast, but the impact on the river traffic would have had major consequences, as it is narrow there and would be akin to taking the M25 from 5 lanes - 1 lane at rush hour. So rafting up alongside was a non starter.<br />The result was that HMS HURTWORTH occupied a prime location buoy, which couldnt have taken a larger vessel, and did the RN proud.<br />Its not always about the RN failing to deliver, despite the best efforts of some to do the RN down.Sir Humphreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-8883851120950032392012-06-03T12:37:28.465+01:002012-06-03T12:37:28.465+01:00Hurst - My instinct is that the RN will remain at ...Hurst - My instinct is that the RN will remain at roughly its current size in 2015, as the procurement budget is now balanced. Assuming that the wider budget remains stable, and no strategic shocks occur, then there is no reason not to see a maintenance of the RN in its current size.<br />A lot depends on how people see the future - the desire to see prolonged ground engagement is definitely reducing, and the RN offers a nice means of influence without entanglement. If there was a good set of staff officers in the Centre, then a slightly enhanced navy could be on the cards in 2015-2020, particularly if the case can be made for primarily Naval and not army centric investment.<br />As for the bluewater tag. The RN can deploy globally on multiple operations across a range of capabilities, at a time and place of its chosing and sustain them for a prolonged period. That is a bluewater navy in my book. The MN can do it to a point, and the RN capability will be enhanced again in 2017.Sir Humphreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-89635198415138293342012-06-03T12:28:54.558+01:002012-06-03T12:28:54.558+01:00"... could be the moment for the UK to step u..."... could be the moment for the UK to step up and more actively seek to invest in maritime capabilities. An overt assumption of the role as the lead western naval power, with the UK seeking to act as peacekeeper, and de facto dominant naval power in Europe could be on the cards."<br /><br />Can I have some of what you are smoking please? <br /><br />HMG increase investment in the RN? Just not going to happen, in fact I'd bet the RN is cut again in the 2015 defence review. As for being the dominant naval power in Europe, if you leave out the Russians, that doesn't take much. With the exception of the French no European Country has a blue water navy.HurstLlamahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01086351645473769872noreply@blogger.com