May the Forth Be With You - the PRINCE OF WALES sails...

The Royal Navy has now become only the second nation in global history to put two indigenously designed and built super carriers to sea. The news that PRINCE OF WALES has now left the Rosyth dockyard where she was assembled and is now about to head out to sea for the first time is incredibly exciting. For the first time in nearly 50 years the Royal Navy has a pair of strike carriers at sea.

Today is the realisation of a journey that was thought lost forever in 1966 when the CVA01 carrier was cancelled, and then reinvigorated in 1998 under the Strategic Defence Review. For over 20 years the Royal Navy has invested heavily, and sacrificed much, to ensure that this day would come.

But, putting to sea is merely the first step in a long next journey, and it is worth taking stock of what is likely to happen next. Perhaps more importantly, it is worth setting out in simple terms why you will not see POW embark F35s soon.

Image by Ministry of Defence; © Crown copyright

In simple terms, the next stage for POW is to conduct her initial sea trials. This is a period intended to make sure that the ship works as expected, that everything comes together as planned, and that the ship functions properly.

This is important as the ship has been built over 8 years (a very quick build by carrier standards), so it is important to test all the machinery and components that have been installed or under construction for years still work as planned.

The trials will also check that the ship meets the design specs, or if the builders need to repair anything under warranty or make amendments to meet the contract. This is a normal process and is one that has been carried out on every single Royal Navy ship built for centuries.

It is likely that this period will see the ship operating in the North Sea, probably with some form of helicopter capability embarked (much like her older sister QE embarked a pair of Merlins on the day she sailed from the Forth). But, it is also important to understand that, right now, she is not yet a commissioned warship and still remains in builders hands and owned by the Aircraft Carrier Alliance and not the Royal Navy.

One question many people will ask is ‘why doesn’t she have planes embarked’? It’s a perfectly good question and one that needs a little explanation. This stage of the trials is not about testing the ships ability to operate Fast Jets. That is a very complex, and challenging piece of work which requires the ship to be fully worked up (e.g. the crew tested and trained, and the assurance in place that the vessel works as planned).

The initial trials ‘iron out the bugs’ and make sure the ship is able to physically work as planned. Its akin to taking a car for a test drive to make sure it drives as expected and doesn’t have any nasty faults that need fixing.

The next step is to complete sea trials and fix any identified defects or make minor amendments to the ship. This will culminate in her returning to sea, and likely making her first entry to Portsmouth later this year. In due course the vessel will commission, and formally become ‘Her Majesty’s Ship’ (HMS) PRINCE OF WALES and be owned by the Royal Navy.

The next stage in the process will be to work the ship up and transform from being a vessel under trials to becoming an operational warship. This will involve a programme of work that will see her sail to conduct training serials, such as with the FOST organisation, and get the crew to the point where they can safely and competently sail, operate and fight the ship.

Unlike QE, its likely that the trials and work up phase could be a little shorter. Much of the QE’s early life involved conducting a lot of trial work to determine the handling limits of the platform (e.g. what were the maximum safe conditions flying could be conducted in various weather types) and helping determine how to safely embark and operate different types of aircraft.

For example QE has so far embarked and operated Lynx Wildcat, Merlin (multiple variants), Apache, Chinook, the MV22 Osprey and of course the F35 jet to name but a few. This has built up a large amount of data and information that will help get POW operational more quickly – the hard work has been done here already.

It is a fact that first of class vessels often take longer to enter full operational service than later ones due to the need to gather this data and ensure the best possible information is obtained, particularly as it will shape how the class operates for the next 50 years.

POW will in due course also carry out a similar set of flying trials, although it is likely that they will be a bit shorter than those with QE, due in part to the data already collected.

This is the point where F35 will probably embark for the first-time onboard POW, to test the ship and her crew to make sure they are capable of operating the airframe and supporting it as intended. What isn’t clear yet is whether the RN will carry out a similar set of trials off the coast of the US with one or two specially instrumented trials aircraft (as occurred in 2018), or if they will move quickly to larger embarkations. This is the point when POW will really come of age as a strike carrier, with the crew confirmed as able to safely operate the ship at sea and conduct aviation operations.

The other area QE is testing is the work up and integration of the Carrier Strike Group concept, which is being tested right now with the QE and other vessels operating off the coast of North America. This will help test the ability of the QE to act as the centre of a force capable of projecting power and operating the F35 in a strike role.

In this scenario she will be embarking multiple F35s and conducting the full gambit of operations with them to test how the carrier can work both under national and part of coalition operations. This deployment, known as WESTLANT19 will be a critical part of the process of returning to full carrier strike capability.

On current plans the QE is due to deploy out to the Asia Pacific region in 2021 on her first operational deployment, but its not clear what the first deployment for POW will be yet. It is likely to be occurring in a similar time frame, but it will probably depend on how the RN looks to build the concept of a permanently available carrier strike group.

Under the 2010 SDSR the RN was intending to build one carrier in the CTOL mode (possibly POW) with ‘Cats and Traps’ and then mothball/sell the other carrier. This plan was thankfully cancelled when it became clear just how expensive and risky a proposition it could be (for an insight into this its worth looking at the challenges facing the FORD class CVN and its problems with EMALS right now).

Instead the 2015 SDSR confirmed the intent to operate both ships, and the RN has moved to a position of planning to have one carrier and supporting elements always at high readiness to deploy on operations. This is a significant change to how the Naval Service has traditionally operated and may take time to bed in and get fully worked up.

The likely situation is that POW will become fully operational in the next few years both in the strike role, and able to embark Royal Marines as part of the future commando force, helping deliver bootnecks ashore from some distance.

This will occur as the UK F35 force increases in numbers and mass, with more planes, pilots and ground crew coming online over the next few years as it builds up to capability. This will be supported by wider changes, such as the introduction of the Crowsnest AEW capability.

The big challenge for the RN will be to deliver this with manpower and ensuring the Service can cope with all the challenges thrown at it and put the right people in the right place at the right time. Getting the people element right is what matters here, not arguing ad infinitum about whether 3,4,5 or 650 Phalanx CIWS are the right level of defence for the ship.

The perspective to take is that the sailing of the POW today is the end of one journey and the first step in the new trip. It will take time to see her operating with F35 embarked, and it will still be time before she sails for her first operational deployment. But the RN has a clearly mapped out, and extremely positive and exciting plan for how it will achieve this.

So, the best thing to do when encountering naysayers who feel that the carrier is doomed because she doesn’t have planes embarked is to simply explain that she will soon, that the aircraft exist and that there is a well understood path to get there.

To those who think it is somehow odd or embarrassing that the ship has sailed without jets embarked, it is worth noting two key points. Firstly, the art of fast jet aircraft launching and recovery is usually done at sea with the ship underway, with a fully commissioned warships crew able to support this complex and very dangerous evolution. It is not normally done alongside in a major naval base while the ship is in the hands of builders.

Secondly, to the authors knowledge, no aircraft carrier in history has sailed from the builders yard to conduct initial sea trials with an airwing embarked. If its good enough for every other aircraft carrier ever built to sail for the first time without jets embarked, hopefully its good enough for the Royal Navy too… 

It is a long road, and a complex one that takes time to get right. Naval aviation is a difficult and at times very dangerous business. Rushing it doesn’t help, and if it was easy, then most navies would do it. The fact is that outside of the Royal Navy and US Navy, only two other nations (India and China) are on the cusp of operating multiple carriers, and both have needed significant external help to get to this point.

There will be a lot of comments to come about the ship and her activities and trials. To follow them in a great way, there are three sites out there that are particularly worth a follow to keep up to date with all the issues going on.

The Royal Navy website is the official home of all news about the carriers and their activities. It is well worth following, along with the twitter accounts for both ships too. 

The always superb ‘Save the Royal Navy’ webpage has regularly got great articles on the carriers and their activities – it is well worth a read – their article on POW going to sea that went live on 19/09 can be found HERE

The fantastic ‘Queen Elizabeth Class Aircraft Carriers’ facebook page is fantastic. A grown up site that welcomes constructive, grown up posts, it is well worth a follow to keep up to date on the path to operational capability. Probably the single best resource for information on QE and future plans for the class on the internet today.

Finally other sites worth looking at include the UK Defence Journal, which always covers defence news in a great way, the excellent resource ‘Forces.Net’ which is a superb source of news, information and comment, both are well worth a follow both digitally and on twitter.

Today is a landmark day in the exciting story of the modern Royal Navy. Two super carriers are now at sea, on the verge of assuming the mantle of being the nations high readiness conventional deterrent force for decades to come. This is a story of success, and one which highlights the astonishingly positive case for the bright future ahead for the Royal Navy.