tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post3400153201589328717..comments2024-03-20T12:03:26.126+00:00Comments on Thin Pinstriped Line: Assessment on the Proposals for a Scottish Defence Force (Part Three - General)Sir Humphreyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-11217316791101764032013-12-28T12:25:16.888+00:002013-12-28T12:25:16.888+00:00Nations that essentially do no more than hope that...Nations that essentially do no more than hope that a neighbour will protect them are, ultimately, independent on paper only; they are hostage to whatever demands their protector makes. Although I'm sure those demands would be dressed up very politely so everyone can save face.Moshopshttp://www.moschops.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-15667387836679649962013-12-07T10:09:09.201+00:002013-12-07T10:09:09.201+00:00Maybe they can forget their defence force and decl...Maybe they can forget their defence force and declare themselves as Iceland number 2.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-77552737179209865842013-12-06T22:06:41.134+00:002013-12-06T22:06:41.134+00:00Replying to myself. How frightful! But for the rec...Replying to myself. How frightful! But for the record, the last "direct personnel costs, per MOD civilian" (from 2011) appears to have been £36K. At that time "direct personnel costs, per service person" was £49K I think.<br /><br />Angus McLellanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14238976801715524150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-7115256229880165342013-12-06T19:02:04.276+00:002013-12-06T19:02:04.276+00:00If they really want to join NATO, I rather think t...If they really want to join NATO, I rather think they will...but the alternative that they really want to win the referendum, but will then sadly conclude that they can only really manage a few OPVs for the EEZ and a Gendarmererie attached to the Police Force for situations requiring lethal force has occurred to one or two people here - especially if they can find a way to blame the English...<br /><br />aka GNBAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-91744346627377547402013-12-06T09:27:12.176+00:002013-12-06T09:27:12.176+00:00Come independence St. Alex will simply wave a magi...Come independence St. Alex will simply wave a magic wand and all these problems will simply dissapear. ;-)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-58701074240656333142013-12-06T03:57:31.546+00:002013-12-06T03:57:31.546+00:00Allowing your two broad qualifications, you are pr...Allowing your two broad qualifications, you are probably right about the unprecedent aspect. But it's not clear to me why "expeditionary operations" should be relevant here.<br /><br />Your discussion of personnel costs seems optimistic. The latest "MoD Indicators" or "QDS" stuff I could find from DASA had "direct personnel costs, per service person" at £52K. This produces a more reasonable - but still suspiciously low based on NATO data for comparator countries - figure of c40% of expenditure going to personnel. Well, 40% plus civilian staff of course, but (as you'll know only too well) civil servants are cheap ;-) Please see below for a further remark regarding staff (as opposed to uniformed personnel) numbers.<br /><br />On the subject of (secure-ish) communications, I'm surprised nobody put in dibs on timesharing Skynet 5. [Yes, this is a ridiculous idea. It's meant to be.] Call me anti-military, but I'd expect that government (including military, far from the most important user) secure communications to be the business of a GCHQ analogue. There's a clue right there in the name.<br /><br />If you're covering the MoD, you might like to reflect on the following statement in the paper. "[T]he Scottish Government will establish core government capacity for defence functions, such as strategic planning, oversight and policy functions for defence and security." How many people work on those things for UK MoD? I vaguely recall struggling with the MoD's execrable online org chart gadget and coming up with a 1500-ish figure. Whether that's right or wrong, in Denmark the number is around 150, and in New Zealand it's under 100. Not a terrible lot, even if redundancy in the delightful surroundings of southern England were generally preferred to gainful employment in the Mickey Mouse Scottish external affairs & defence department. <br /><br />Any DES, DSTL, DIO, etc analogues must therefore form part of the SDF. This is by no means unprecedented (e.g. Denmark, Norway, NZ) but it does mean that the number of civilian personnel in the SDF - no numbers given you'll recall - would probably be in the 5,000 range and up. To me, this makes sense, given that I would expect personnel costs to account for 45-55% of total budget. The proposed SDF lacks sufficient expensive toys for it to be much less. Angus McLellanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14238976801715524150noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-54138205174545544822013-12-05T23:01:45.183+00:002013-12-05T23:01:45.183+00:00The issue of the Scottish MOD is one I was going t...The issue of the Scottish MOD is one I was going to look at in the last part. I agree the timings are very difficult. <br />The other point I intend to look at in more depth in the conclusion is that there is no precedent that I can find for an advanced nations military, particularly when optimised for expeditionary operations, has ever split in two and then gone further. I think the combination of needing people, training and maintenance is going to be a step too far on independence, although it could with a lot of time, effort and resource be doable within a few decades. Sir Humphreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08704774192275240783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6254362504495980377.post-67083392690734864762013-12-05T22:52:35.483+00:002013-12-05T22:52:35.483+00:00You have missed the most basic question. How are t...You have missed the most basic question. How are they going to establish a workable Ministry of Defence plus a procurement/commercial organisation to make policy and administer all the other parts of the organisation? I wonder how many Scots working south of the border will wish to rush back to join such a MIckey Mouse organisation, except on very favourable financial term. Can they set up a MOD by independence in 2016? I doubt it, but without the bureaucracy it is going to be virtually impossible to get everything else in gear. <br /><br />A question also arises about location. The White Paper implies everything will be based at Faslane. So suppose the UK takes several years to move Trident out, where will the MOD be in the interim? Does Faslane make sense for a defence organisation anyway? Who will wish to move from a major city to the breezy rural environs of the Clyde estuary? <br /><br />Most countries that became independent with the end of empire were fairly unsophisticated and have been able to gradually develop forces over 30-50 years, initially using simple equipment (think of the Gulf states), but certainly not in the timescale envisaged by the SNP. Jumping straight to very advanced forces is going to be extremely difficult and it may well prove impossible for the Scots to operate or maintain the SNP wish list. In practice the Scots will be dependent on the UK to look after them and provide active assistance in areas such as training, logistics and communications for at least 20 years, probably longer in reality. <br /><br />On this basis alone independence does not make sense. However, the very fact that the issue has advanced this far, for the second time in just 35 years, ought to be a warning call to the dysfunctional Westminster political class that a lot of British citizens, not just in Scotland, are profoundly dissatisfied with the way our political elite has been running the country.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com